I don’t know if it belongs here or in a separate post but afaik there is no explanation of the Dutch book argument on Less Wrong. It seems like there should be. Just telling people that structuring your beliefs according to Bayes Theorem will make them accurate might not do the trick for some. The Dutch book argument makes it clear why you can’t just use any old probability distribution.
I thought about whether to include a Dutch Book discussion in this post, but felt it would have been too long and not as “deep core” as the other stuff. More like “supporting core”. But yes, it would be good to have a discussion of that up on LW somewhere.
I don’t know if it belongs here or in a separate post but afaik there is no explanation of the Dutch book argument on Less Wrong. It seems like there should be.
Post away! (Then have someone add a link and summary of your post in the wiki.)
I don’t know if it belongs here or in a separate post but afaik there is no explanation of the Dutch book argument on Less Wrong. It seems like there should be. Just telling people that structuring your beliefs according to Bayes Theorem will make them accurate might not do the trick for some. The Dutch book argument makes it clear why you can’t just use any old probability distribution.
I thought about whether to include a Dutch Book discussion in this post, but felt it would have been too long and not as “deep core” as the other stuff. More like “supporting core”. But yes, it would be good to have a discussion of that up on LW somewhere.
Post away! (Then have someone add a link and summary of your post in the wiki.)
I’m on it.