Well, I still think my pessimism was warranted given the epistemic state I had when I made the comment. I still don’t have a clue what the game is about though, and I think that’s a legitimate question… or did I miss an explanation of that on the website too? :/
I think it’s generally right to have a prior of pessimism about projects in this reference class, although I think you went overboard in assuming your initial read was right. (Critch also has a several successful non-game projects under his belt which I think is relevant)
Weird! How did I not notice that?
Well, I still think my pessimism was warranted given the epistemic state I had when I made the comment. I still don’t have a clue what the game is about though, and I think that’s a legitimate question… or did I miss an explanation of that on the website too? :/
I think it’s generally right to have a prior of pessimism about projects in this reference class, although I think you went overboard in assuming your initial read was right. (Critch also has a several successful non-game projects under his belt which I think is relevant)