Yeah I agree. This is one of the places where I could see orders of magnitude differences that are strong enough to drive changes in the ultimate conclusion. Eg. from “it isn’t worth the risk” to “it is worth the risk”. I’ve only been able to do a very handwavvy estimate of you having 1⁄4 of the risk if you’re safe. Josh Jacobson’s analysis looks like it’s closer to 1⁄6. His factored in seatbelt wearing, but not speed limit, and speed limit does make a lot of sense.
It’d also be great if there was good data on more obscure things like wearing a helmet in a car, although iirc a helmet specifically might actually cause more harm due to the torque causing worse whiplash. Anyone know if that’s true?
Update: It looks like urban compared to rural only reduces fatality rate by about a factor of two. However, you probably have to drive more miles if you’re in a rural place, so maybe urban can get up to a 10x improvement.
Yeah I agree. This is one of the places where I could see orders of magnitude differences that are strong enough to drive changes in the ultimate conclusion. Eg. from “it isn’t worth the risk” to “it is worth the risk”. I’ve only been able to do a very handwavvy estimate of you having 1⁄4 of the risk if you’re safe. Josh Jacobson’s analysis looks like it’s closer to 1⁄6. His factored in seatbelt wearing, but not speed limit, and speed limit does make a lot of sense.
It’d also be great if there was good data on more obscure things like wearing a helmet in a car, although iirc a helmet specifically might actually cause more harm due to the torque causing worse whiplash. Anyone know if that’s true?
Update: It looks like urban compared to rural only reduces fatality rate by about a factor of two. However, you probably have to drive more miles if you’re in a rural place, so maybe urban can get up to a 10x improvement.