I would not be comfortable with the inconsistency you describe about the lottery. I’m not sure how you can let it stand. I guess the problem is that you don’t know which instinct to fix, and just reversing one belief at random is not going to improve accuracy on average.
Still, wouldn’t careful introspection be likely to expose either some more fundamental set of inconsistent beliefs, that you can fix; or at least, to lead you to decide that one of the two beliefs is in fact stronger than the other, in which case you should reverse the weaker one? It seems unlikely that the two beliefs are exactly balanced in your degree of credence.
For the reactor, I’d say that the reasoning about one in a thousand odds is in fact a good way to go about analyzing the problem. It’s how I approach other, similar issues. If I’m considering one of two routes through heavy traffic, I do roughly estimate the odds of running into a traffic jam. These are very crude estimates but they are better than nothing.
The biggest criticism I would give to such reasoning in this case is that as we go out the probability scale, we have much less experience, and our estimates are going to be far less accurate and calibrated. Furthermore, often in these situations we end up comparing or dividing probabilities, and error percentages go up astronomically in such calculations. So while the final figure may represent a mean, the deviation is so large that even slight differences in approach could have led to a dramatically different answer.
I would give substantially higher estimates that our theories are wrong—indeed by some measures, we know for sure our theories are wrong since they are inconsistent and none of the unifications work. However I’d give much lower estimates that the theories are wrong in just such a way that would lead to us destroying the earth.
I assume you were being facetious when you gave 75% odds that the authors would have maintained their opinion in different circumstances. Yet to me, it is a useful figure to read, and does offer insight into how strongly you believe. Without that number, I’d have guessed that you felt more strongly than that.
I would not be comfortable with the inconsistency you describe about the lottery. I’m not sure how you can let it stand. I guess the problem is that you don’t know which instinct to fix, and just reversing one belief at random is not going to improve accuracy on average.
Still, wouldn’t careful introspection be likely to expose either some more fundamental set of inconsistent beliefs, that you can fix; or at least, to lead you to decide that one of the two beliefs is in fact stronger than the other, in which case you should reverse the weaker one? It seems unlikely that the two beliefs are exactly balanced in your degree of credence.
For the reactor, I’d say that the reasoning about one in a thousand odds is in fact a good way to go about analyzing the problem. It’s how I approach other, similar issues. If I’m considering one of two routes through heavy traffic, I do roughly estimate the odds of running into a traffic jam. These are very crude estimates but they are better than nothing.
The biggest criticism I would give to such reasoning in this case is that as we go out the probability scale, we have much less experience, and our estimates are going to be far less accurate and calibrated. Furthermore, often in these situations we end up comparing or dividing probabilities, and error percentages go up astronomically in such calculations. So while the final figure may represent a mean, the deviation is so large that even slight differences in approach could have led to a dramatically different answer.
I would give substantially higher estimates that our theories are wrong—indeed by some measures, we know for sure our theories are wrong since they are inconsistent and none of the unifications work. However I’d give much lower estimates that the theories are wrong in just such a way that would lead to us destroying the earth.
I assume you were being facetious when you gave 75% odds that the authors would have maintained their opinion in different circumstances. Yet to me, it is a useful figure to read, and does offer insight into how strongly you believe. Without that number, I’d have guessed that you felt more strongly than that.