(there wasn’t a clear case for how this would happen AFAICT, just ‘i dunno neural net magic might be able to help.’ I don’t expect neural-net magic to help here in the next 10 years but I could see it helping in the next 20 or 30. I’m not sure if it happens much farther in advance than “actual AGI” though)
I thought Ozzie’s plan here was closer to “if you have a knowledge graph, you can durably encode a lot of this in ways that transfer between questions”, and you can have lots of things where you rapidly build out a suite of forecasts with quantifiers and pointers. I thought “maybe NLP will help you pick out bad questions” but I think this is more “recognizing common user errors” than it is “understanding what’s going on.”
Yep. I don’t think any/much NLP is interesting for a lot of interesting work, if things are organized well with knowledge graphs. I haven’t thought much about operationalizing questions using ML, but have been thinking that by focussing on questions that could be scaled (like, GDP/Population of every country for every year), we could get a lot of useful information without a huge amount of operationalization work.
I thought Ozzie’s plan here was closer to “if you have a knowledge graph, you can durably encode a lot of this in ways that transfer between questions”, and you can have lots of things where you rapidly build out a suite of forecasts with quantifiers and pointers. I thought “maybe NLP will help you pick out bad questions” but I think this is more “recognizing common user errors” than it is “understanding what’s going on.”
Nod, I definitely expect I missed some details, and defer to you or Ozzie on a more precise picture.
Yep. I don’t think any/much NLP is interesting for a lot of interesting work, if things are organized well with knowledge graphs. I haven’t thought much about operationalizing questions using ML, but have been thinking that by focussing on questions that could be scaled (like, GDP/Population of every country for every year), we could get a lot of useful information without a huge amount of operationalization work.