An idea that I had later which I didn’t end up saying to Ozzie at the retreat was something like a “Good Judgment Project for high schoolers”, in the same way that there are math contests and programming contests and so on. I would be really interested in seeing what happens if we can identify people who would be superforecasters as adults when they’re still teens or in undergrad or whatever, and then point them towards a career in forecasting / have them work together to build up the art, and this seems like a project that’s “normal” enough to catch on while still doing something interesting.
Yea, I’ve been thinking about this too, though more for college students. I think that hypothetically forecasting could be a pretty cool team activity; perhaps different schools/colleges could compete with each other. Not only would people develop track records, but the practice of getting good at forecasting seems positive for epistemics and similar.
An idea that I had later which I didn’t end up saying to Ozzie at the retreat was something like a “Good Judgment Project for high schoolers”, in the same way that there are math contests and programming contests and so on. I would be really interested in seeing what happens if we can identify people who would be superforecasters as adults when they’re still teens or in undergrad or whatever, and then point them towards a career in forecasting / have them work together to build up the art, and this seems like a project that’s “normal” enough to catch on while still doing something interesting.
Today I wondered how much of forecasting plus data science is just people realizing that insurance isn’t the only use of actuarial methods.
Yea, I’ve been thinking about this too, though more for college students. I think that hypothetically forecasting could be a pretty cool team activity; perhaps different schools/colleges could compete with each other. Not only would people develop track records, but the practice of getting good at forecasting seems positive for epistemics and similar.