Those people now… I think basically work as professional forecasters.
I don’t think any of the superforecasters are full-time on forecasting, instead doing it as a contractor gig; mostly due to lack of demand for the services.
Vague impression that they mostly focus on geopolitics stuff?
Yes, initial tournament were sponsored by IARPA who cared about that, and Tetlock’s earlier work in the 90′s and 00′s also considered expert political forecasting.
I don’t think any of the superforecasters are full-time on forecasting, instead doing it as a contractor gig; mostly due to lack of demand for the services.
Good to know. I’d still count contractors as professionals though.
Factual correction:
I don’t think any of the superforecasters are full-time on forecasting, instead doing it as a contractor gig; mostly due to lack of demand for the services.
Yes, initial tournament were sponsored by IARPA who cared about that, and Tetlock’s earlier work in the 90′s and 00′s also considered expert political forecasting.
Good to know. I’d still count contractors as professionals though.