I’d argue the latter. It’s hard to imagine how you could know in advance that a uFAI has a high chance of working, rather than being one of thousands of ambitious AGI projects that simply fail.
(Douglas Lenat comes to you, saying that he’s finished a powerful fully general self-modifying AI program called Eurisko, which has done very impressive things in its early trials, so he’s about to run it on some real-world problems on a supercomputer with Internet access; and by the way, he’ll be alone all tomorrow fiddling with it, would you like to come over...)
I’d argue the latter. It’s hard to imagine how you could know in advance that a uFAI has a high chance of working, rather than being one of thousands of ambitious AGI projects that simply fail.
(Douglas Lenat comes to you, saying that he’s finished a powerful fully general self-modifying AI program called Eurisko, which has done very impressive things in its early trials, so he’s about to run it on some real-world problems on a supercomputer with Internet access; and by the way, he’ll be alone all tomorrow fiddling with it, would you like to come over...)