It seems like they are totally missing the core concept that the point of the prediction market is trying to specifically incentivize you to move the market to the probability you believe.
Do you mean “closer to the probability you believe”? Moving a liquid prediction market right to the probability you believe involves spending a bunch of capital in an inefficient way—your last dollar spent on such a trade gets almost no expected return. If you have many markets available, or are risk averse, or have a limited budget, you will not behave this way.
Do you mean “closer to the probability you believe”? Moving a liquid prediction market right to the probability you believe involves spending a bunch of capital in an inefficient way—your last dollar spent on such a trade gets almost no expected return. If you have many markets available, or are risk averse, or have a limited budget, you will not behave this way.