LessWrong censi did frequently list pandemics as concern for the annihilation of the human race for many participants. To me this episode suggests that as a group we were right to be more concerned then the average person on the street.
I would expect the crisis to increase public funding of pandemic intervention a lot, so the objective risk will go down in comparison towards pre-COVID-19.
I think it makes sense to go from the previous majority opinion that pandemics are the biggest x-risk to consider AI risk the biggest x-risk with pandemics at the second place.
Of course it’s Bayesian evidence for natural pandemics happening more frequently, but the size of the update depends on your previous model.
People who think that climate change is a more serious threat then pandemics should likely update towards pandemics being more serious but I don’t think that includes most of our community.
There’s a chance that calling this a natural pandemic in the way an earthquake or a supervulano eruption is natural is also misleading. There’s a good chance that this pandemic was acciendently created by the human institution of a wild animal market in China. Xi’s China seems authoritarian enough to shut down those markets in the future.
Our preparedness towards pandemics was really screwed up. This cricis will affect the public psychy like 9/11 and we will do a lot to get future safety.
LessWrong censi did frequently list pandemics as concern for the annihilation of the human race for many participants. To me this episode suggests that as a group we were right to be more concerned then the average person on the street.
I would expect the crisis to increase public funding of pandemic intervention a lot, so the objective risk will go down in comparison towards pre-COVID-19.
I think it makes sense to go from the previous majority opinion that pandemics are the biggest x-risk to consider AI risk the biggest x-risk with pandemics at the second place.
Presumably COVID-19 should update me on natural pandemics happening more frequently than I would have otherwise thought though, right?
Of course it’s Bayesian evidence for natural pandemics happening more frequently, but the size of the update depends on your previous model.
People who think that climate change is a more serious threat then pandemics should likely update towards pandemics being more serious but I don’t think that includes most of our community.
There’s a chance that calling this a natural pandemic in the way an earthquake or a supervulano eruption is natural is also misleading. There’s a good chance that this pandemic was acciendently created by the human institution of a wild animal market in China. Xi’s China seems authoritarian enough to shut down those markets in the future.
Our preparedness towards pandemics was really screwed up. This cricis will affect the public psychy like 9/11 and we will do a lot to get future safety.