That probably depends on what your pre-COVID-19 model was?
If I rephrase the question as “how much should COVID-19 update expert models about risks from pandemics”, then my impression is that things have proceeded roughly in line with the pre-existing models. The response procedures that are now being activated in several countries are based on plans that were originally made as a reaction to previous diseases such as SARS.
My own update is that although there has been some feet-dragging, overall the national responses have felt stronger and faster than I would have anticipated. The next time that there is a pandemic, such a response should hopefully be more routine and competent, so this makes me more optimistic about our ability to deal with future pandemics.
LessWrong censi did frequently list pandemics as concern for the annihilation of the human race for many participants. To me this episode suggests that as a group we were right to be more concerned then the average person on the street.
I would expect the crisis to increase public funding of pandemic intervention a lot, so the objective risk will go down in comparison towards pre-COVID-19.
I think it makes sense to go from the previous majority opinion that pandemics are the biggest x-risk to consider AI risk the biggest x-risk with pandemics at the second place.
Of course it’s Bayesian evidence for natural pandemics happening more frequently, but the size of the update depends on your previous model.
People who think that climate change is a more serious threat then pandemics should likely update towards pandemics being more serious but I don’t think that includes most of our community.
There’s a chance that calling this a natural pandemic in the way an earthquake or a supervulano eruption is natural is also misleading. There’s a good chance that this pandemic was acciendently created by the human institution of a wild animal market in China. Xi’s China seems authoritarian enough to shut down those markets in the future.
Our preparedness towards pandemics was really screwed up. This cricis will affect the public psychy like 9/11 and we will do a lot to get future safety.
How much should COVID-19 update me about the risks from pandemics?
That probably depends on what your pre-COVID-19 model was?
If I rephrase the question as “how much should COVID-19 update expert models about risks from pandemics”, then my impression is that things have proceeded roughly in line with the pre-existing models. The response procedures that are now being activated in several countries are based on plans that were originally made as a reaction to previous diseases such as SARS.
My own update is that although there has been some feet-dragging, overall the national responses have felt stronger and faster than I would have anticipated. The next time that there is a pandemic, such a response should hopefully be more routine and competent, so this makes me more optimistic about our ability to deal with future pandemics.
LessWrong censi did frequently list pandemics as concern for the annihilation of the human race for many participants. To me this episode suggests that as a group we were right to be more concerned then the average person on the street.
I would expect the crisis to increase public funding of pandemic intervention a lot, so the objective risk will go down in comparison towards pre-COVID-19.
I think it makes sense to go from the previous majority opinion that pandemics are the biggest x-risk to consider AI risk the biggest x-risk with pandemics at the second place.
Presumably COVID-19 should update me on natural pandemics happening more frequently than I would have otherwise thought though, right?
Of course it’s Bayesian evidence for natural pandemics happening more frequently, but the size of the update depends on your previous model.
People who think that climate change is a more serious threat then pandemics should likely update towards pandemics being more serious but I don’t think that includes most of our community.
There’s a chance that calling this a natural pandemic in the way an earthquake or a supervulano eruption is natural is also misleading. There’s a good chance that this pandemic was acciendently created by the human institution of a wild animal market in China. Xi’s China seems authoritarian enough to shut down those markets in the future.
Our preparedness towards pandemics was really screwed up. This cricis will affect the public psychy like 9/11 and we will do a lot to get future safety.