But why can’t we eradicate the virus? Let’s say China shuts down international travel, keeps doing what they’re doing, and then slowly eases back up in some area, letting the people in that city comingle and go back to work, but still restricting travel in and out. Let’s say they get that city back running, with no coronavirus cases after a month.
At the same time...Won’t they also have basically eradicated other influenza there? Even if not entirely, there should be much less cold and flu, right? So as soon as coronavirus creeps back in, it should be much easier to contain.
I guess my thinking here is, if coronavirus is much more virulent than the flu, and this type of containment works to almost eliminate the coronavirus, could China...actually eradicate the flu, at the same time? If not, why not?
The problem comes in from other countries. If China goes to all this effort and the US, Europe, UK etc don’t, do we would end up with this weird hazmat curtain? Asian countries would join China in eradicating the disease, and Australia and New Zealand would probably join them.
I’ve already heard that influenza cases are down in countries that enforced social distancing / lockdowns for coronavirus. However, it really only takes one country not doing this for influenza to return to typical incidence—there’s no real reason to believe it will be eradicated. (However, the same seems true for COVID-19, so I’m not sure what to expect there.)
I agree that actually eradicating influenza feels far-fetched. But on the other hand, it’s quite a lot easier to work with than COVID-19. Influenza isn’t nearly as infectious, most people have immunity, and it’s barely transmissible at all when the carrier is asymptomatic.
Imagine you actually did have the “hazmat curtain” situation. Everyone is asked to take their temperature on the way in, and significant fines (and potential visa cancellations) are imposed if you lie. At first nearly everyone is checked to verify, but this is relaxed to spot-checks as people get used to never breaking the rule. Few enough people are getting sick that when people do report influenza symptoms, they can be tested, and contact tracing can be employed to halt the outbreak and trace it back to how it was introduced.
If there are no animal reservoirs for the disease, I think that could be viable? It’s expensive, but influenza is a big cost in itself, in lost productivity and other problems.
The big problem I see for eradicating coronavirus will be in poorer countries—Africa, the middle east, etc. The outbreaks there are still pretty small, but there’s no real resources to address them, so the problem could grow there until it’s really hard to fix.
But why can’t we eradicate the virus? Let’s say China shuts down international travel, keeps doing what they’re doing, and then slowly eases back up in some area, letting the people in that city comingle and go back to work, but still restricting travel in and out. Let’s say they get that city back running, with no coronavirus cases after a month.
At the same time...Won’t they also have basically eradicated other influenza there? Even if not entirely, there should be much less cold and flu, right? So as soon as coronavirus creeps back in, it should be much easier to contain.
I guess my thinking here is, if coronavirus is much more virulent than the flu, and this type of containment works to almost eliminate the coronavirus, could China...actually eradicate the flu, at the same time? If not, why not?
The problem comes in from other countries. If China goes to all this effort and the US, Europe, UK etc don’t, do we would end up with this weird hazmat curtain? Asian countries would join China in eradicating the disease, and Australia and New Zealand would probably join them.
I’ve already heard that influenza cases are down in countries that enforced social distancing / lockdowns for coronavirus. However, it really only takes one country not doing this for influenza to return to typical incidence—there’s no real reason to believe it will be eradicated. (However, the same seems true for COVID-19, so I’m not sure what to expect there.)
I agree that actually eradicating influenza feels far-fetched. But on the other hand, it’s quite a lot easier to work with than COVID-19. Influenza isn’t nearly as infectious, most people have immunity, and it’s barely transmissible at all when the carrier is asymptomatic.
Imagine you actually did have the “hazmat curtain” situation. Everyone is asked to take their temperature on the way in, and significant fines (and potential visa cancellations) are imposed if you lie. At first nearly everyone is checked to verify, but this is relaxed to spot-checks as people get used to never breaking the rule. Few enough people are getting sick that when people do report influenza symptoms, they can be tested, and contact tracing can be employed to halt the outbreak and trace it back to how it was introduced.
If there are no animal reservoirs for the disease, I think that could be viable? It’s expensive, but influenza is a big cost in itself, in lost productivity and other problems.
The big problem I see for eradicating coronavirus will be in poorer countries—Africa, the middle east, etc. The outbreaks there are still pretty small, but there’s no real resources to address them, so the problem could grow there until it’s really hard to fix.