I don’t have a strong stance either way but I think there are some interesting points for the other side. Let’s say this is on the order of a ww2 number of deaths. Look at the impact of ww2 on the economy. Except with the present situation there’s no need to halt international trading, and none of the productive assets get bombed. This still leaves a lot of room on the side of it being worse than many of these sunny projections, but what I want to point at is that it is also really common to drastically underestimate how bad things can look locally and still have trends mostly do alright due to the enormous differences of scale between what it takes for things to look bad and what it takes for things to be bad everywhere.
I don’t have a strong stance either way but I think there are some interesting points for the other side. Let’s say this is on the order of a ww2 number of deaths. Look at the impact of ww2 on the economy. Except with the present situation there’s no need to halt international trading, and none of the productive assets get bombed. This still leaves a lot of room on the side of it being worse than many of these sunny projections, but what I want to point at is that it is also really common to drastically underestimate how bad things can look locally and still have trends mostly do alright due to the enormous differences of scale between what it takes for things to look bad and what it takes for things to be bad everywhere.