Update on the data: NY is now adding 5000 new cases per day. WA is above 200, and CA above 250. No one looks like they’re stopped the growth in new cases. A slow exponential is still exponential.
Keep in mind that the trend in the number of confirmed cases only provides hints about the trend in new infections. The number of confirmed cases is highly dependent on the amount of testing, and increases in testing capacity will tend to lead to more confirmed cases. Also, there is a substantial delay between when a person is infected and when they test positive, typically somewhere in the range of 1-2 weeks (with the length of the delay also depending on the testing regime).
Thanks, Peter! very helpful.
Update on the data: NY is now adding 5000 new cases per day. WA is above 200, and CA above 250. No one looks like they’re stopped the growth in new cases. A slow exponential is still exponential.
Keep in mind that the trend in the number of confirmed cases only provides hints about the trend in new infections. The number of confirmed cases is highly dependent on the amount of testing, and increases in testing capacity will tend to lead to more confirmed cases. Also, there is a substantial delay between when a person is infected and when they test positive, typically somewhere in the range of 1-2 weeks (with the length of the delay also depending on the testing regime).