Hi, I haven’t posted in a while, and I hope that people are still reading new comments in this thread, because I need an answer fast, and this is the best place that I know to get a good one. (Well, second best. I posted to SSC first.)
My parents, age 70, live in Lincoln NE (population 285 thousand, no reported cases of Covid-19 yet, 17 reported cases in the State, schools just closed and are preparing to go online). They pretty much run their bridge club, most of whose members are in their 70s but generally in good health. The club has an event planned for tonight (March 15 Sunday), at which 26 people are expected to show up and sit at card tables in close proximity, moving from table to table over the course of the evening. There will be hand sanitizer available at the tables.
Question: Should they cancel the event?
Please give reasons for your answer as if you’re trying to convince a stubborn Boomer (but not a Trump-supporter). You may assume that your audience is mathematically literate. If you know any data on age-related risks that controls for other risk factors, then that would be a big bonus. (Because since heart disease, diabetes, and lung disease are all risk factors for Covid-19, and since they’re also all more prevalent among older people, maybe age alone is not much of a risk factor all.)
Here is what I wrote my dad in attempt to get him to close up the church of which he is an elder, in a similarly sized city. My dad is a statistician and 30% prepper, so this was more about giving him evidence to take to others than convincing him:
I made a model to translate deaths in an area into probable number of current infections, and another to make a crude guess at what prevalence hospitals will be over-capacity (the answer is 1.5%). Based on my math, 1 confirmed death in [county] implies a prevalence of 0.13% (range 0.027% to 0.43%), which is 4 doublings away from overwhelming hospitals. However the doubling time is also used to calculate the current prevalence, so if you think the doubling time is very short you not only have very little time from .1 to .2%, but you’re more likely to already be at .3%. So in the 5th percentile scenario you’re at .43% and have only 6 days until you’re over 1.5%.
I think people should quarantine themselves at least three weeks before their municipality reaches hospital saturation (so that if they get it, it’s before the peak). So under the current testing regiment, a single confirmed community transmission case in [county[ should absolutely trigger a shut down. If we get decent survey testing system going it would of course be different.
The other thing to watch out for is excess pneumonia deaths. I don’t know how to check this, but if there’s a noticeable bump in pneumonia I would attribute them all to COVID-19.
I didn’t think of this at the time, but in retrospect it would have been helpful to suggest replacements for an in-person service. I’ll bet it is easier to convince your parents’ friends to switch to online bridge with voice chat than to give it up entirely.
I have good news and bad news. The bad news is that the game went on last night as planned. The good news is that my parents won’t be attending any more large games. The bad news is that there are still going to be more large games, at least one tonight. Although it’s mostly the same population every time.
Hi, I haven’t posted in a while, and I hope that people are still reading new comments in this thread, because I need an answer fast, and this is the best place that I know to get a good one. (Well, second best. I posted to SSC first.)
My parents, age 70, live in Lincoln NE (population 285 thousand, no reported cases of Covid-19 yet, 17 reported cases in the State, schools just closed and are preparing to go online). They pretty much run their bridge club, most of whose members are in their 70s but generally in good health. The club has an event planned for tonight (March 15 Sunday), at which 26 people are expected to show up and sit at card tables in close proximity, moving from table to table over the course of the evening. There will be hand sanitizer available at the tables.
Question: Should they cancel the event?
Please give reasons for your answer as if you’re trying to convince a stubborn Boomer (but not a Trump-supporter). You may assume that your audience is mathematically literate. If you know any data on age-related risks that controls for other risk factors, then that would be a big bonus. (Because since heart disease, diabetes, and lung disease are all risk factors for Covid-19, and since they’re also all more prevalent among older people, maybe age alone is not much of a risk factor all.)
Here is what I wrote my dad in attempt to get him to close up the church of which he is an elder, in a similarly sized city. My dad is a statistician and 30% prepper, so this was more about giving him evidence to take to others than convincing him:
I didn’t think of this at the time, but in retrospect it would have been helpful to suggest replacements for an in-person service. I’ll bet it is easier to convince your parents’ friends to switch to online bridge with voice chat than to give it up entirely.
I have good news and bad news. The bad news is that the game went on last night as planned. The good news is that my parents won’t be attending any more large games. The bad news is that there are still going to be more large games, at least one tonight. Although it’s mostly the same population every time.
The club is now closed until further notice.
Asked a general version of the question here
Previous versions of this question: https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/03/11/open-thread-149-25/#comment-865412 https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/03/15/open-thread-149-5/#comment-865535