Their paper is not relevant as they do not analyze testing & contact tracing AT ALL, only mentioning it briefly in the Discussion section. I think everyone who thinks the strategy I describe might be feasible (which now seems to be most informed participants in the discussion on here & rationalist Twitter) more or less agrees with the Ferguson analysis if you assume you can’t do testing & tracing & isolation or they won’t work.
Yes you are correct, succinctly addressed here ” They ignore standard Contact Tracing [2] allowing isolation of infected prior to symptoms. They also ignore door-to-door monitoring to identify cases with symptoms [3]. Their conclusions that there will be resurgent outbreaks are wrong. After a few weeks of lockdown almost all infectious people are identified and their contacts are isolated prior to symptoms and cannot infect others [4]. ” https://necsi.edu/review-of-ferguson-et-al-impact-of-non-pharmaceutical-interventions
Their paper is not relevant as they do not analyze testing & contact tracing AT ALL, only mentioning it briefly in the Discussion section. I think everyone who thinks the strategy I describe might be feasible (which now seems to be most informed participants in the discussion on here & rationalist Twitter) more or less agrees with the Ferguson analysis if you assume you can’t do testing & tracing & isolation or they won’t work.
Yes you are correct, succinctly addressed here ” They ignore standard Contact Tracing [2] allowing isolation of infected prior to symptoms. They also ignore door-to-door monitoring to identify cases with symptoms [3]. Their conclusions that there will be resurgent outbreaks are wrong. After a few weeks of lockdown almost all infectious people are identified and their contacts are isolated prior to symptoms and cannot infect others [4]. ” https://necsi.edu/review-of-ferguson-et-al-impact-of-non-pharmaceutical-interventions