I’m wondering why you are also coming up with a LOT more hospitalization than even cases reported in China.
In early April, if I’m readying this right, you are expecting the Bay area to need over 80,000 hospital beds for COVID-19 for the uncontrolled case (I assume that is merely a comparison scenario) and then after 3 months, say starting July, in the controlled scenario about 81,000 hospital beds will be needed. Then things keep going up.
That seems like something is missing there. Why would the Bay area really expect to see such drastically higher impact than China as a whole? Using your 20%, 20% assumption and saying China is at 85,000 now, the total demand for hospital beds would have been 20,400 over the entire December—March time period.
China locked down Wuhan at ~500 confirmed cases and many other Hubei cities the next day, which immediately lowered transmission (see Chart 7 here) to R0 below 1. This is very far from the uncontrolled scenario and still overloaded the health care system. This is much of the point of the post I linked—the degree of hospital overload in an uncontrolled scenario is so high that even huge reductions in transmission don’t realistically avoid overload if R0 stays above 1.
I do get that point, and do think it is one that is well made. At the same time, I find the numbers produced a bit on the high side. Clearly the 20,400 number being within existing capacity for the Bay area completely ignores current patients unrelated to COVID-19. But perhaps under a regime of social distancing, containment and isolation of both known cases and by the more concerned both the speed of growth and the total number your model is producing would be much closer to manageable.
I’m wondering why you are also coming up with a LOT more hospitalization than even cases reported in China.
In early April, if I’m readying this right, you are expecting the Bay area to need over 80,000 hospital beds for COVID-19 for the uncontrolled case (I assume that is merely a comparison scenario) and then after 3 months, say starting July, in the controlled scenario about 81,000 hospital beds will be needed. Then things keep going up.
That seems like something is missing there. Why would the Bay area really expect to see such drastically higher impact than China as a whole? Using your 20%, 20% assumption and saying China is at 85,000 now, the total demand for hospital beds would have been 20,400 over the entire December—March time period.
China locked down Wuhan at ~500 confirmed cases and many other Hubei cities the next day, which immediately lowered transmission (see Chart 7 here) to R0 below 1. This is very far from the uncontrolled scenario and still overloaded the health care system. This is much of the point of the post I linked—the degree of hospital overload in an uncontrolled scenario is so high that even huge reductions in transmission don’t realistically avoid overload if R0 stays above 1.
I do get that point, and do think it is one that is well made. At the same time, I find the numbers produced a bit on the high side. Clearly the 20,400 number being within existing capacity for the Bay area completely ignores current patients unrelated to COVID-19. But perhaps under a regime of social distancing, containment and isolation of both known cases and by the more concerned both the speed of growth and the total number your model is producing would be much closer to manageable.