Just looked at a link for a Vox article that popped up when I launched my browser. Nice chart but would be interesting to know some thing about the model parameters (and I think the graph is illustrative not anything factual or based on some model CDC has) that would be required to achieve the image, and some sense about how close both USA and EU are to achieving the parameter values.
I thought the interesting thing about is was that the goal is not really about reducing the number of infections. That is not really a narrative that is in the public media at this time—or I’m missing it.
Thanks. BTW, have you thought about putting an average recovery/dies period in, perhaps differing based on hospital bed or ICU and look at how those parameters might shift things a bit? Might even be good to model the time between infection and need for medical care (be that bed or ICU).
Or are those implicit in your beta and gamma values?
Just looked at a link for a Vox article that popped up when I launched my browser. Nice chart but would be interesting to know some thing about the model parameters (and I think the graph is illustrative not anything factual or based on some model CDC has) that would be required to achieve the image, and some sense about how close both USA and EU are to achieving the parameter values.
I thought the interesting thing about is was that the goal is not really about reducing the number of infections. That is not really a narrative that is in the public media at this time—or I’m missing it.
I made a model that tries to replicate the chart, see here.
Thanks. BTW, have you thought about putting an average recovery/dies period in, perhaps differing based on hospital bed or ICU and look at how those parameters might shift things a bit? Might even be good to model the time between infection and need for medical care (be that bed or ICU).
Or are those implicit in your beta and gamma values?