I think it might also be worth considering hospital beds—to some extent—is not a fixed quantity to can expand as demand increases. Consider using hotels or other (these days rather vacant) building/structures. That’s basically what China has done here (and in other cases with their “legos” 10 day to build hospitals—rejected the concept of what a hospital is and how fixed the supply is.
Just as an assumption check, was your hospital bed/ICU bed value an average for, say the USA, or some other country level metric or an average of the local hospital to service area metric?
I used overall US numbers. I didn’t consider capacity expansion but also didn’t take out already-occupied beds, as I think both are roughly on the order of 2-5x in opposite directions. The only Bay Area-specific numbers are population and day 0 infected (I assumed ~10x confirmed cases).
I think it might also be worth considering hospital beds—to some extent—is not a fixed quantity to can expand as demand increases. Consider using hotels or other (these days rather vacant) building/structures. That’s basically what China has done here (and in other cases with their “legos” 10 day to build hospitals—rejected the concept of what a hospital is and how fixed the supply is.
Just as an assumption check, was your hospital bed/ICU bed value an average for, say the USA, or some other country level metric or an average of the local hospital to service area metric?
I used overall US numbers. I didn’t consider capacity expansion but also didn’t take out already-occupied beds, as I think both are roughly on the order of 2-5x in opposite directions. The only Bay Area-specific numbers are population and day 0 infected (I assumed ~10x confirmed cases).