The idea that smart investors don’t understand exponential curves is absurd on its face
I don’t think this is necessarily absurd or false. Like, this is what Black Swan Farming was about.
I think people in finance are used to exponential curves with doubling times of 20 years, and this doesn’t give them much of an edge when it comes to doubling times of 2 days. Like, even in semiconductor manufacturing, the progress of Moore’s Law over someone’s 40-year career corresponds to about a month of viral growth at that rate.
Startup finance people do work with stuff at roughly the same scale, and correspondingly freaked out much more.
The sheer insanity of such a prediction should give you an idea of how uncertain this whole thing still is.
I don’t think this is crazy, once you consider healthcare system failure. What does the world look like if no one receives medical care for any condition besides a COVID infection for the next three months?
I don’t think this is necessarily absurd or false. Like, this is what Black Swan Farming was about.
I think people in finance are used to exponential curves with doubling times of 20 years, and this doesn’t give them much of an edge when it comes to doubling times of 2 days. Like, even in semiconductor manufacturing, the progress of Moore’s Law over someone’s 40-year career corresponds to about a month of viral growth at that rate.
Startup finance people do work with stuff at roughly the same scale, and correspondingly freaked out much more.
I don’t think this is crazy, once you consider healthcare system failure. What does the world look like if no one receives medical care for any condition besides a COVID infection for the next three months?