This proposal increases the influence of the states, in the sense of “how much does it matter that any given person bothered to vote?”, but does it increase their preference satisfaction? If the 4 states each conceive of themselves as red or blue states, then each of them will be thinking “under the current system I estimate an X% chance that we’ll elect my party’s president while under the new system I estimate a Y% chance we’ll elect my party’s president”. If both sides are perfect predictors then one will conclude that Y<X so they should not do the deal. If both sides are imperfect predictors such that they both think Y>X, then the outside view still tells them it’s equally likely that they’re the sucker here and shouldn’t participate.
Except there’s more at play than just winning the election. If you’re a voter in a swing state, the candidates are paying more attention to you, and making more promises catering to you. The parties are picking candidates they think will appeal to you. Even if your odds of winning stay the same, the prize for winning gets bigger.
It was exiting a few elections ago when Colorado was in play by both parties. We even got to host the Democratic convention in Denver. Now, they just ignore us.
This proposal increases the influence of the states, in the sense of “how much does it matter that any given person bothered to vote?”, but does it increase their preference satisfaction? If the 4 states each conceive of themselves as red or blue states, then each of them will be thinking “under the current system I estimate an X% chance that we’ll elect my party’s president while under the new system I estimate a Y% chance we’ll elect my party’s president”. If both sides are perfect predictors then one will conclude that Y<X so they should not do the deal. If both sides are imperfect predictors such that they both think Y>X, then the outside view still tells them it’s equally likely that they’re the sucker here and shouldn’t participate.
Except there’s more at play than just winning the election. If you’re a voter in a swing state, the candidates are paying more attention to you, and making more promises catering to you. The parties are picking candidates they think will appeal to you. Even if your odds of winning stay the same, the prize for winning gets bigger.
It was exiting a few elections ago when Colorado was in play by both parties. We even got to host the Democratic convention in Denver. Now, they just ignore us.