I don’t know whether this will count as a separate submission (I prefer to treat these two models as one submission), but I did one more step on improving the model.
Result: Expected number of AI research years is ~150k to 5.4M years, mean 1.7M.
Technique: I pasted the original model into Claude Sonnet and asked it to suggest improvements. I then gave the original model and some hand-written suggested improvements to Squiggle AI (instructing it to add different growth modes for the AI winters and changing the variance of number of AI researchers to be lower in early years and close to the present).
That’s find, we’ll just review this updated model then.
We’ll only start evaluating models after the cut-off date, so feel free to make edits/updates before then. In general, we’ll only use the most recent version of each submitted model.
I don’t know whether this will count as a separate submission (I prefer to treat these two models as one submission), but I did one more step on improving the model.
New Model is here.
Background is the same as above.
Result: Expected number of AI research years is ~150k to 5.4M years, mean 1.7M.
Technique: I pasted the original model into Claude Sonnet and asked it to suggest improvements. I then gave the original model and some hand-written suggested improvements to Squiggle AI (instructing it to add different growth modes for the AI winters and changing the variance of number of AI researchers to be lower in early years and close to the present).
That’s find, we’ll just review this updated model then.
We’ll only start evaluating models after the cut-off date, so feel free to make edits/updates before then. In general, we’ll only use the most recent version of each submitted model.