The scatterplot shown here appears to show a strong positive correlation between population and GDP per capita.
[EDITED to add: no, I’m an idiot and misread the plot, which shows a clear correlation between population and total GDP and suggests rather little between population and per capita GDP. Sorry about that. The Gapminder link posted by satt also suggests very little correlation between population and per capita GDP. So the context for my (unchanged) argument below is not “Increasing returns to scale are just one factor; here are a bunch more” but “Increased returns to scale are probably negligible; here are a bunch of things that aren’t”.]
In any case, “increasing returns to scale” were just one example (and I think not the best) of how someone might be more productive on moving from (smaller, poorer, more corrupt, less developed) country A to (larger, richer, less corrupt, more developed) country B. Here, let me list some other specific things that might make someone more productive if they move from (say) Somalia to (say) France.
Better food and healthcare. Our migrant will likely be healthier in country B, and people do more and better work when healthier.
Easier learning. Our migrant may arrive in country B with few really valuable skills, but will find more opportunities than in country A to learn new things.
Better infrastructure. Perhaps our migrant is working on making things; country B has better roads, railways, airports, etc., for shipping the products around for sale. Perhaps s/he is (after taking advantage of those educational opportunities) working on computer software; country B has reliable electricity, internet that doesn’t suck, places to buy computer hardware, etc.
Richer customers. Perhaps our migrant is making food or cleaning houses. People in country B will pay a lot more for this, because they are richer and their time is worth more to them. So, at least as measured in GDP, the same work is more productive-in-dollars in country B than in country A. (Is this a real gain rather than an artefact of imperfect quantification? Maybe. If people in country B are richer and their time is worth more because they are actually doing more valuable things then any given saving in their time is helping the world more.)
Less corruption. Many poor dysfunctional countries have a lot of corruption. This imposes a sort of friction on otherwise-productive activities—one has to spend time and/or money bribing and sweet-talking corrupt officials, and it could have been used for something else. In country B this happens much less.
And what caused these differences between these two countries? (Hint: it’s not magical corruption ray located in Mogadishu.) And how will these traits change as more people move from Somalia to France?
It could be any number of things. Including the one I take it you’re looking for, namely some genetic inferiority on the part of the people in country A. But even if that were the entire cause it could still easily be the case that when someone moves from A to B their productivity (especially if expressed in monetary terms) increases dramatically.
I’m actually not quite sure what point you’re arguing now. A few comments back, though, your claim was that Nancy was (nearly) contradicting herself by expecting immigrants to (1) be productive in their new country even though (2) their old country is the kind of place where it’s really hard to be productive, on the grounds that for #2 to be true the people in the old country must be unproductive people.
It seems to me that for this argument to work you’d need counters to the following points (which have been made and which you haven’t, as it seems to me, given any good counterargument to so far):
There are lots of other ways in which the old country could make productivity harder than the new—e.g., the ones I mention above.
Let me reiterate that these apply even if the old country’s productivity is entirely a matter of permanent, unfixable genetic deficiencies in its people. Suppose the people of country A are substantially stupider and lazier than those of country B; this will lead to all kinds of structural problems in country A; but in country B it may well be that even someone substantially stupider and lazier than the average can still be productive. (Indeed I’m pretty sure many such people are.)
If the differences between A and B do indeed all arise in this way (which, incidentally, I think there are good reasons to think is far from the truth) then yes, if the scale of migration from A to B is large enough then it could make things worse rather than better overall. Given that the empirical evidence I’m aware of strongly suggests that migration to successful countries tends to make them better off, I think the onus is on you if you want to make the case that this actually happens at any credible level of migration.
The people who move from country A to country B may be atypical of the people of country A, in ways that make them more likely overall to be productive in country B.
Your only response to this has been a handwavy dismissal, to the effect that that might have been true once but now immigration is too easy so it isn’t any more. How about some evidence?
It could be any number of things. Including the one I take it you’re looking for, namely some genetic inferiority on the part of the people in country A.
Not necessarily, my argument goes through even if it’s memetic.
The people who move from country A to country B may be atypical of the people of country A, in ways that make them more likely overall to be productive in country B.
Your only response to this has been a handwavy dismissal, to the effect that that might have been true once but now immigration is too easy so it isn’t any more. How about some evidence?
How about some yourself. Note simply saying that something may happen is not a reason to ignore the prior that it won’t. I responded to your only argument about the prior. Also, look at the way the immigrants are in fact behaving, I believe it involves lots of riots and creating neighborhoods that the police are afraid to go into.
The scatterplot shown here appears to show a strong positive correlation between population and GDP per capita.
[EDITED to add: no, I’m an idiot and misread the plot, which shows a clear correlation between population and total GDP and suggests rather little between population and per capita GDP. Sorry about that. The Gapminder link posted by satt also suggests very little correlation between population and per capita GDP. So the context for my (unchanged) argument below is not “Increasing returns to scale are just one factor; here are a bunch more” but “Increased returns to scale are probably negligible; here are a bunch of things that aren’t”.]
In any case, “increasing returns to scale” were just one example (and I think not the best) of how someone might be more productive on moving from (smaller, poorer, more corrupt, less developed) country A to (larger, richer, less corrupt, more developed) country B. Here, let me list some other specific things that might make someone more productive if they move from (say) Somalia to (say) France.
Better food and healthcare. Our migrant will likely be healthier in country B, and people do more and better work when healthier.
Easier learning. Our migrant may arrive in country B with few really valuable skills, but will find more opportunities than in country A to learn new things.
Better infrastructure. Perhaps our migrant is working on making things; country B has better roads, railways, airports, etc., for shipping the products around for sale. Perhaps s/he is (after taking advantage of those educational opportunities) working on computer software; country B has reliable electricity, internet that doesn’t suck, places to buy computer hardware, etc.
Richer customers. Perhaps our migrant is making food or cleaning houses. People in country B will pay a lot more for this, because they are richer and their time is worth more to them. So, at least as measured in GDP, the same work is more productive-in-dollars in country B than in country A. (Is this a real gain rather than an artefact of imperfect quantification? Maybe. If people in country B are richer and their time is worth more because they are actually doing more valuable things then any given saving in their time is helping the world more.)
Less corruption. Many poor dysfunctional countries have a lot of corruption. This imposes a sort of friction on otherwise-productive activities—one has to spend time and/or money bribing and sweet-talking corrupt officials, and it could have been used for something else. In country B this happens much less.
And what caused these differences between these two countries? (Hint: it’s not magical corruption ray located in Mogadishu.) And how will these traits change as more people move from Somalia to France?
It could be any number of things. Including the one I take it you’re looking for, namely some genetic inferiority on the part of the people in country A. But even if that were the entire cause it could still easily be the case that when someone moves from A to B their productivity (especially if expressed in monetary terms) increases dramatically.
I’m actually not quite sure what point you’re arguing now. A few comments back, though, your claim was that Nancy was (nearly) contradicting herself by expecting immigrants to (1) be productive in their new country even though (2) their old country is the kind of place where it’s really hard to be productive, on the grounds that for #2 to be true the people in the old country must be unproductive people.
It seems to me that for this argument to work you’d need counters to the following points (which have been made and which you haven’t, as it seems to me, given any good counterargument to so far):
There are lots of other ways in which the old country could make productivity harder than the new—e.g., the ones I mention above.
Let me reiterate that these apply even if the old country’s productivity is entirely a matter of permanent, unfixable genetic deficiencies in its people. Suppose the people of country A are substantially stupider and lazier than those of country B; this will lead to all kinds of structural problems in country A; but in country B it may well be that even someone substantially stupider and lazier than the average can still be productive. (Indeed I’m pretty sure many such people are.)
If the differences between A and B do indeed all arise in this way (which, incidentally, I think there are good reasons to think is far from the truth) then yes, if the scale of migration from A to B is large enough then it could make things worse rather than better overall. Given that the empirical evidence I’m aware of strongly suggests that migration to successful countries tends to make them better off, I think the onus is on you if you want to make the case that this actually happens at any credible level of migration.
The people who move from country A to country B may be atypical of the people of country A, in ways that make them more likely overall to be productive in country B.
Your only response to this has been a handwavy dismissal, to the effect that that might have been true once but now immigration is too easy so it isn’t any more. How about some evidence?
Not necessarily, my argument goes through even if it’s memetic.
How about some yourself. Note simply saying that something may happen is not a reason to ignore the prior that it won’t. I responded to your only argument about the prior. Also, look at the way the immigrants are in fact behaving, I believe it involves lots of riots and creating neighborhoods that the police are afraid to go into.