Actually, there are prediction markets. Unfortunately the most useful one, Intrade got closed (maybe the three-letter-agencies felt threatened?) but hopefully there will be others. Oh, far from accurate, don’t get me wrong.
But at least if you wanted to have some kind of starting estimate for something you knew nothing about, you could sometimes find one at Intrade.
I suspect it closed because it wasn’t giving the kind of powerful results necessary to get funding-type attention. I suppose to start off, a prediction agency should predict its own success. :P
Now I’m curious about any self-referential predictions Intrade made...
Actually, there are prediction markets. Unfortunately the most useful one, Intrade got closed (maybe the three-letter-agencies felt threatened?) but hopefully there will be others. Oh, far from accurate, don’t get me wrong.
But at least if you wanted to have some kind of starting estimate for something you knew nothing about, you could sometimes find one at Intrade.
I suspect it closed because it wasn’t giving the kind of powerful results necessary to get funding-type attention. I suppose to start off, a prediction agency should predict its own success. :P
Now I’m curious about any self-referential predictions Intrade made...