I would not have updated much at all based on the David Ruhl comment. Cryobiology is a young field, and the details about what we can and can’t do with current preservation technology change every couple of years. Also, I think almost all bio-scientists who say current preservation techniques are insufficient to preserve you are underestimating the likelihood and the powers of machine superintelligence, and in general haven’t studied superintelligence theory hardly at all. Skepticism about cryonics working should, I think, mostly come from the other parts of the conjunction.
Thanks for this. This has substantially reduced my estimate of the odds of cryonics working.
I would not have updated much at all based on the David Ruhl comment. Cryobiology is a young field, and the details about what we can and can’t do with current preservation technology change every couple of years. Also, I think almost all bio-scientists who say current preservation techniques are insufficient to preserve you are underestimating the likelihood and the powers of machine superintelligence, and in general haven’t studied superintelligence theory hardly at all. Skepticism about cryonics working should, I think, mostly come from the other parts of the conjunction.
From approximately what to approximately what?