I recently wrote a small (python, command-line) program for prediction tracking. Above all, I wanted something that allowed very quick entry, that stored everything in a single plain-text human-readable file on my own computer, and that I could easily customize.
As far as features go, I also wanted a tagging system and to be able to do more sophisticated analysis. For example, I wanted to classify predictions as e.g.”work” or “politics” when looking at accuracy, or to see how my calibration changed over different times or with how far in advance I had made a prediction.
Since the predictions that I care most about aren’t very interesting to other people, I don’t miss the social aspect. Nor do I want to obscure a prediction that contains personal details or store it separately.
An example:
If you wanted to predict that it will rain today, with 50% confidence, and tag the prediction with the “weather” and “external” tags, and be reminded to judge the prediction 2 days from now, you’d type this on the command line:
predict ‘rain today’ 50 -t weather external -d 2
The created entry in the log will look something like this:
Running “predict—due” will either ask you about any predictions that are ready to be judged and update the corresponding log entry, or just change “state” to “due” so you can ctrl-f and edit the log directly. (Since the log is just text, you can manually edit any entry, like changing a prediction from “open” to “true” or “false”).
Running “predict—stats” will dump statistics.
I’m very happy with this work flow, and I’m hoping to clean up the code and share it when I get a moment. It’s all of ~250 lines, but I couldn’t find what I wanted out there already.
I recently wrote a small (python, command-line) program for prediction tracking. Above all, I wanted something that allowed very quick entry, that stored everything in a single plain-text human-readable file on my own computer, and that I could easily customize.
As far as features go, I also wanted a tagging system and to be able to do more sophisticated analysis. For example, I wanted to classify predictions as e.g.”work” or “politics” when looking at accuracy, or to see how my calibration changed over different times or with how far in advance I had made a prediction.
Since the predictions that I care most about aren’t very interesting to other people, I don’t miss the social aspect. Nor do I want to obscure a prediction that contains personal details or store it separately.
An example:
If you wanted to predict that it will rain today, with 50% confidence, and tag the prediction with the “weather” and “external” tags, and be reminded to judge the prediction 2 days from now, you’d type this on the command line:
The created entry in the log will look something like this:
Running “predict—due” will either ask you about any predictions that are ready to be judged and update the corresponding log entry, or just change “state” to “due” so you can ctrl-f and edit the log directly. (Since the log is just text, you can manually edit any entry, like changing a prediction from “open” to “true” or “false”).
Running “predict—stats” will dump statistics.
I’m very happy with this work flow, and I’m hoping to clean up the code and share it when I get a moment. It’s all of ~250 lines, but I couldn’t find what I wanted out there already.