This deal doesn’t give Iran a path to the bomb. The whole process is to be closely supervised. More importantly, Iran doesn’t want the bomb. It would be suicidal for them to invite a hundredfold-larger U.S. arsenal.
From what I understand, if the U.S. suspects Iran of cheating we have to wait at least 24 days and get the approval of other nations before we can inspect anything. Closely supervised, NO. Once Iran has an atomic weapon and the ability to hit a U.S. allied city with it, Iran wins immunity from U.S. attacks, unless it strike us first.
Wouldn’t any early limited nuke capabilities of Iran be unlikely to get past our missile defense? From my understanding our current defense systems could not withstand say a full-scale russian assault, but they are fairly capable in defending against limited strikes from smaller powers.
If you’re already at the stage of smuggling nuclear bombs across oceans and national borders, then whether or not Iran has the technology to make them is almost entirely irrelevant. There are plenty of nukes unaccounted for from soviet stockpiles, North Korea would probably be happy to covertly sell someone nukes, and so on.
I could probably smuggle a large box from the Middle East to the United States via the Mexican border. I’m not sure you are right about the unaccounted for Soviet nukes.
I am not impressed by the opinion of this guy, mostly because he states obviously false things as if they were facts. Notably:
“A handful of bombs doesn’t help as long as Iran is surrounded by bombs”. That is not true at all, a nuclear weapon is a highly useful deterrent, especially against conventional attacks. Ask Kim Jong-un about it.
“Iran would cease to exist only twenty minutes after having carried out a nuclear attack on Israel”. Is there any evidence that the US stands ready to launch a nuclear attack (in 20 minutes!) against a country that would drop a nuke on Israel? Not to mention that the way Iran is likely to nuke Israel is via their Hezbollah proxy.
The whole strawman premise there seems to be that Iran wants to do some kind of nuclear-brinkmanship new Cold War with the US. This is utter nonsense, of course. Iran does want nuclear weapons, but not for launching at the US.
“Iran would cease to exist only twenty minutes after having carried out a nuclear attack on Israel”. Is there any evidence that the US stands ready to launch a nuclear attack (in 20 minutes!) against a country that would drop a nuke on Israel?
Whether or not the US is willing to launch nukes, Israel has submaries that carry nuclear weapons and that likely would retaliate with them in case Israel get’s nuked.
Not “has”, but “is in the process of acquiring”. I suspect that has much to do with the nuclear weapons that Iran does not want and is not building X-/
Besides, the easiest way to nuke Israel looks like this: a rusty freighter under the Panamian flag arrives into Tel Aviv. One minute after it docks, Tel Aviv is a radioactive crater. That’s all the information you have—what next, do you order a nuclear launch on Tehran? On which basis?
And, of course, a few nukes will not make a large country like Iran “cease to exist”. Look at Japan.
One minute after it docks, Tel Aviv is a radioactive crater. That’s all the information you have—what next, do you order a nuclear launch on Tehran? On which basis?
I would guess that Israel has protocols for direct nuclear answers.
Israel has at least 3 submaries capable of carrying nuclear weapons
There are the old Dolphins and the new Dolphins, they are very different. It is the new Dolphins which are supposed to have the second-strike nuclear capability and Israel just got the first one in the series. See e.g. here.
Israel has protocols for direct nuclear answers
I am sure it has. But the situation when you tracked a long-range bomber from Iranian airspace and that bomber dropped a nuke is very different from the situation when a nuke just exploded in a city and you have no idea how that happened or who is responsible.
Maybe. There is very little reliable information about Israeli Popeye missile variants which are the cruise missiles that the Dolphins are presumably equipped with. Specifically no one knows whether they are capable of delivering a nuclear warhead over a 600+ miles range (the distance from the Mediterranean to Tehran).
OK, if you want to express doubt about whether Israel has nuclear missiles, fine, whatever. But a minute ago, you were claiming that nuclear missiles distinguished the old from the new Dolphins. According to my NTI link they have the same diameter missile tubes. It doesn’t matter if the Popeye turbo goes farther than the Popeye. They all fit on the old Dolphins.
Not quite. I am not expressing doubts that Israel has nuclear missiles, I am expressing doubts that the submarine-launched missiles carrying a nuclear warhead can reach Tehran.
I also didn’t say that “nuclear missiles distinguished the old from the new Dolphins”—I said that the old and the new Dolphins are quite different, and they are. I agree that the old Dolphins are capable launching Popeyes (I was mistaken to imply that they had no nuclear launch capability).
That is not true at all, a nuclear weapon is a highly useful deterrent, especially against conventional attacks. Ask Kim Jong-un about it.
I was under the impression that the true deterrent there was hardened and decentralized conventional artillery able to do significant damage to Seoul, since we’re pretty sure North Korean nukes will work as well as their cure for MERS, Ebola, and AIDS.
As to the chances of the nuke working, well, you gotta ask yourself, do you feel lucky, punk? X-/
Edited to add: We are discussing here whether Iran wants nukes. Therefore what is relevant is that the Kims wanted nukes, even though they had the artillery-can-reach-Seoul deterrent already.
Iran would cease to exist only twenty minutes after having carried out a nuclear attack on Israel”. Is there any evidence that the US stands ready to launch a nuclear attack (in 20 minutes!) against a country that would drop a nuke on Israel? Not to mention that the way Iran is likely to nuke Israel is via their Hezbollah proxy.
Israel has its own very sophisticated nuclear arsenal. US participation would not be needed.
This deal doesn’t give Iran a path to the bomb. The whole process is to be closely supervised. More importantly, Iran doesn’t want the bomb. It would be suicidal for them to invite a hundredfold-larger U.S. arsenal.
From what I understand, if the U.S. suspects Iran of cheating we have to wait at least 24 days and get the approval of other nations before we can inspect anything. Closely supervised, NO. Once Iran has an atomic weapon and the ability to hit a U.S. allied city with it, Iran wins immunity from U.S. attacks, unless it strike us first.
Wouldn’t any early limited nuke capabilities of Iran be unlikely to get past our missile defense? From my understanding our current defense systems could not withstand say a full-scale russian assault, but they are fairly capable in defending against limited strikes from smaller powers.
Not if they smuggle the bomb into the United States.
If you’re already at the stage of smuggling nuclear bombs across oceans and national borders, then whether or not Iran has the technology to make them is almost entirely irrelevant. There are plenty of nukes unaccounted for from soviet stockpiles, North Korea would probably be happy to covertly sell someone nukes, and so on.
I could probably smuggle a large box from the Middle East to the United States via the Mexican border. I’m not sure you are right about the unaccounted for Soviet nukes.
http://www.cfr.org/weapons-of-mass-destruction/loose-nukes/p9549
How do you know?
For example.
I am not impressed by the opinion of this guy, mostly because he states obviously false things as if they were facts. Notably:
“A handful of bombs doesn’t help as long as Iran is surrounded by bombs”. That is not true at all, a nuclear weapon is a highly useful deterrent, especially against conventional attacks. Ask Kim Jong-un about it.
“Iran would cease to exist only twenty minutes after having carried out a nuclear attack on Israel”. Is there any evidence that the US stands ready to launch a nuclear attack (in 20 minutes!) against a country that would drop a nuke on Israel? Not to mention that the way Iran is likely to nuke Israel is via their Hezbollah proxy.
The whole strawman premise there seems to be that Iran wants to do some kind of nuclear-brinkmanship new Cold War with the US. This is utter nonsense, of course. Iran does want nuclear weapons, but not for launching at the US.
Whether or not the US is willing to launch nukes, Israel has submaries that carry nuclear weapons and that likely would retaliate with them in case Israel get’s nuked.
Not “has”, but “is in the process of acquiring”. I suspect that has much to do with the nuclear weapons that Iran does not want and is not building X-/
Besides, the easiest way to nuke Israel looks like this: a rusty freighter under the Panamian flag arrives into Tel Aviv. One minute after it docks, Tel Aviv is a radioactive crater. That’s all the information you have—what next, do you order a nuclear launch on Tehran? On which basis?
And, of course, a few nukes will not make a large country like Iran “cease to exist”. Look at Japan.
Israel has at least 3 submaries capable of carrying nuclear weapons: http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/israel-deploys-nuclear-weapons-on-german-submarines-a-836671.html
I would guess that Israel has protocols for direct nuclear answers.
There are the old Dolphins and the new Dolphins, they are very different. It is the new Dolphins which are supposed to have the second-strike nuclear capability and Israel just got the first one in the series. See e.g. here.
I am sure it has. But the situation when you tracked a long-range bomber from Iranian airspace and that bomber dropped a nuke is very different from the situation when a nuke just exploded in a city and you have no idea how that happened or who is responsible.
Especially if Iran announces that should we be hit in retaliation, we will use all of our (remaining) nuclear weapons.
NTI cites a 1999 Jane’s report saying that the old Dolphins carried nuclear missiles. (And the 1999 ship may well have been specified in 1989.)
Maybe. There is very little reliable information about Israeli Popeye missile variants which are the cruise missiles that the Dolphins are presumably equipped with. Specifically no one knows whether they are capable of delivering a nuclear warhead over a 600+ miles range (the distance from the Mediterranean to Tehran).
OK, if you want to express doubt about whether Israel has nuclear missiles, fine, whatever. But a minute ago, you were claiming that nuclear missiles distinguished the old from the new Dolphins. According to my NTI link they have the same diameter missile tubes. It doesn’t matter if the Popeye turbo goes farther than the Popeye. They all fit on the old Dolphins.
Not quite. I am not expressing doubts that Israel has nuclear missiles, I am expressing doubts that the submarine-launched missiles carrying a nuclear warhead can reach Tehran.
I also didn’t say that “nuclear missiles distinguished the old from the new Dolphins”—I said that the old and the new Dolphins are quite different, and they are. I agree that the old Dolphins are capable launching Popeyes (I was mistaken to imply that they had no nuclear launch capability).
Yes,and think what happens to economic investment in Tel Aviv if people in a nuclear-armed Iran hint that they might do this.
Israel first ordered these submarines in 1989. It has had 3 since 2000. It is true that it is acquiring 3 more.
I was under the impression that the true deterrent there was hardened and decentralized conventional artillery able to do significant damage to Seoul, since we’re pretty sure North Korean nukes will work as well as their cure for MERS, Ebola, and AIDS.
Ideally you want multiple deterrents, of course.
As to the chances of the nuke working, well, you gotta ask yourself, do you feel lucky, punk? X-/
Edited to add: We are discussing here whether Iran wants nukes. Therefore what is relevant is that the Kims wanted nukes, even though they had the artillery-can-reach-Seoul deterrent already.
Israel has its own very sophisticated nuclear arsenal. US participation would not be needed.