So in summary “market” about as good as Zvi and both better than Scott . (Albeit on a pretty small sample of 19 questions). (Lower is better for Brier score and log-score)
Biden approval rating (as per 538) is greater than 50%
80%
80%
61%
0
Court packing is clearly going to happen (new justices don’t have to be appointed by end of year)
5%
1%
5%
0
Yang is New York mayor
80%
70%
70%
0
Newsom recalled as CA governor
5%
5%
7%
0
Tokyo Olympics happen on schedule
70%
80%
77%
1
Major flare-up (significantly worse than anything in past 5 years) in Russia/Ukraine war
32%
15%
16%
0
Netanyahu is still Israeli PM
40%
25%
22%
0
Prospera has at least 1000 residents
30%
30%
18%
0
GME >$100 (Currently $170)
50%
50%
60%
1
Bitcoin above 100K
40%
23%
23%
0
Ethereum above 5K
50%
30%
11%
0
Ethereum above 0.05 BTC
70%
55%
33%
1
Dow above 35K
90%
50%
50%
1
…above 37.5K:
70%
20%
20%
0
Unemployment above 5%
40%
50%
37%
0
Starship reaches orbit
60%
60%
50%
0
Greater than 66% of US population vaccinated against COVID
50%
60%
77%
1
Vitamin D is generally recognized (eg NICE, UpToDate) as effective COVID treatment
30%
20%
25%
0
US approves AstraZeneca vaccine
20%
20%
37%
0
* I made a couple of assumptions when calculating Zvi’s probabilities for things where he wasn’t super explicit about his numbers. I will of course update these if asked.
Scott Alexander 2021 Predictions: Market Prices—Resolution
Last year, I looked at Scott’s forecasts for 2021 and compared them to the market forecasts. Today I went through those forecasts (and Zvi’s * - a buy/hold/sell exercise done on Scott’s estimates) added the resolutions and calculated a Brier score and a log-score.
Results were as follows:
So in summary “market” about as good as Zvi and both better than Scott . (Albeit on a pretty small sample of 19 questions). (Lower is better for Brier score and log-score)
Full details can be found here
* I made a couple of assumptions when calculating Zvi’s probabilities for things where he wasn’t super explicit about his numbers. I will of course update these if asked.