OK, so I am obviously biased but I’ll look to see if I think this is fair.
Yeah, this is definitely my bad. I didn’t ask you (or Scott) whether or not you were happy with me comparing your comments to market forecasts. I apologise. I also didn’t intend to make this as normative as it sounds. (FWIW in the past I have gone to bat for your forecasting skills and given your forecast and a market forecast most of the time I would expect to update away from the market and towards you)
I’ll let Simon decide what to do with the rest. I also find it super weird to be punished vs. market for when I said “this is the wrong price, do an arbitrage’ in the correct direction, and made money even vs. market prices doing the trade, but hey.
I do disagree that you should get “better than market” for some of the things where you would arbitrage Scott. If Scott was putting up $ on his forecasts then I would agree, but afaik his forecasts aren’t there to be traded with.
Yeah, this is definitely my bad. I didn’t ask you (or Scott) whether or not you were happy with me comparing your comments to market forecasts. I apologise. I also didn’t intend to make this as normative as it sounds. (FWIW in the past I have gone to bat for your forecasting skills and given your forecast and a market forecast most of the time I would expect to update away from the market and towards you)
I do disagree that you should get “better than market” for some of the things where you would arbitrage Scott. If Scott was putting up $ on his forecasts then I would agree, but afaik his forecasts aren’t there to be traded with.