I do think that “we don’t have enough information to know where the bottlenecks are yet” is in-general a reasonable counterargument to a “just focus on the bottlenecks” approach (insofar as we in fact do not yet have enough information). In this case I think we do have enough information, so that’s perhaps a deeper crux.
Hiliariously, it seems likely that our disagreement is even more meta, on the question of “how do you know when you have enough information to know”, or potentially even higher, e.g. “how much uncertainty should one have given that they think they know” etc.
I do think that “we don’t have enough information to know where the bottlenecks are yet” is in-general a reasonable counterargument to a “just focus on the bottlenecks” approach (insofar as we in fact do not yet have enough information). In this case I think we do have enough information, so that’s perhaps a deeper crux.
Hiliariously, it seems likely that our disagreement is even more meta, on the question of “how do you know when you have enough information to know”, or potentially even higher, e.g. “how much uncertainty should one have given that they think they know” etc.