1) If Zug wins, they’ll be a stronger threat to you than Urk. Hunter-gatherer tribes have a carefully maintained balance of power—chieftains are mostly an invention of agriculture.
2) “When I face an issue of great import that cleaves both constituents and colleagues, I always take the same approach. I engage in deep deliberation and quiet contemplation. I wait to the last available minute and then I always vote with the losers. Because, my friend, the winners never remember and the losers never forget.” -- Sen. Everett Dirksen
1) This explanation seems to presume that the disutility of “Zug wins” is of larger magnitude than the disutility of “Allied with the losing side” proportional to the likelihood of Zug winning. This is not necessarily implausible, but is it likely to have been sufficiently common to exert selection pressure?
2) This explanation presumes that Urk retains sufficient influence after a failed bid for power that the disutility of “Urk hates your stinking guts” is larger than the disutility of “Allied with the losing side”. Clearly the case in the Senate, but elsewhere?
The central part of Eliezer’s comment, in my reading, is that for the vast majority of the time humans evolved they were in a hunter-gatherer tribe format, where the group size was low (other research discussed here indicate an upper-bound of around 50).
In such groups it seems plausible that status “victories” are not absolute, and the power difference between the large and little side is rarely huge. Also, the links between members of two factions are very tight—they all know each other, they’re closely related biologically, and they depend on each other tightly for survival.
Some examples: It’s unlikely that in a 30⁄20, or even 40⁄10 split, the loosing side is massacred: it’s still a large fraction of the group, and loosing it completely would reduce the group’s survivability. Also, its members are probably children or siblings of members of the winning side, so even if Grog supports Zug because he seems like a better hunter, Grog’ll be upset if Zug kills his son Trok, who sided with Urk because he’s younger.
The balance of power can slide easily, for instance if Zug gets older, or if he’s injured in a hunt. (Actually, it seems common enough that in all status-organized “societies”, including wolves and lions, that the leader is often challenged by “underdogs”, one of which will eventually become leader. Which is why challenges are rarely lethal.)
Our intuition (for judging the sides and such) is shaped in a large part by current society sizes (e.g., “my vote doesn’t matter”), because it’s a neural process, but instincts are probably still predominantly shaped around few-dozen-person group sizes, since it’s genetics based.
EDIT: Another point: underdogs in the ancestral environment would tend to be the younger side. Which means a child or a niece or something like that. Which means that the incentive to help them is a bit stronger than just group selection.
even if Grog supports Zug because he seems like a better hunter, Grog’ll be upset if Zug kills his son Trok, who sided with Urk because he’s younger.
Neither Grog nor Grognor would allow his own son to die to such an undignified neophyte as Zug. Then again, who does Trok think he is, going against his father like that?
1) If Zug wins, they’ll be a stronger threat to you than Urk. Hunter-gatherer tribes have a carefully maintained balance of power—chieftains are mostly an invention of agriculture.
2) “When I face an issue of great import that cleaves both constituents and colleagues, I always take the same approach. I engage in deep deliberation and quiet contemplation. I wait to the last available minute and then I always vote with the losers. Because, my friend, the winners never remember and the losers never forget.” -- Sen. Everett Dirksen
Good explanations, but a couple quibbles:
1) This explanation seems to presume that the disutility of “Zug wins” is of larger magnitude than the disutility of “Allied with the losing side” proportional to the likelihood of Zug winning. This is not necessarily implausible, but is it likely to have been sufficiently common to exert selection pressure?
2) This explanation presumes that Urk retains sufficient influence after a failed bid for power that the disutility of “Urk hates your stinking guts” is larger than the disutility of “Allied with the losing side”. Clearly the case in the Senate, but elsewhere?
The central part of Eliezer’s comment, in my reading, is that for the vast majority of the time humans evolved they were in a hunter-gatherer tribe format, where the group size was low (other research discussed here indicate an upper-bound of around 50).
In such groups it seems plausible that status “victories” are not absolute, and the power difference between the large and little side is rarely huge. Also, the links between members of two factions are very tight—they all know each other, they’re closely related biologically, and they depend on each other tightly for survival.
Some examples: It’s unlikely that in a 30⁄20, or even 40⁄10 split, the loosing side is massacred: it’s still a large fraction of the group, and loosing it completely would reduce the group’s survivability. Also, its members are probably children or siblings of members of the winning side, so even if Grog supports Zug because he seems like a better hunter, Grog’ll be upset if Zug kills his son Trok, who sided with Urk because he’s younger.
The balance of power can slide easily, for instance if Zug gets older, or if he’s injured in a hunt. (Actually, it seems common enough that in all status-organized “societies”, including wolves and lions, that the leader is often challenged by “underdogs”, one of which will eventually become leader. Which is why challenges are rarely lethal.)
Our intuition (for judging the sides and such) is shaped in a large part by current society sizes (e.g., “my vote doesn’t matter”), because it’s a neural process, but instincts are probably still predominantly shaped around few-dozen-person group sizes, since it’s genetics based.
EDIT: Another point: underdogs in the ancestral environment would tend to be the younger side. Which means a child or a niece or something like that. Which means that the incentive to help them is a bit stronger than just group selection.
Neither Grog nor Grognor would allow his own son to die to such an undignified neophyte as Zug. Then again, who does Trok think he is, going against his father like that?