I don’t think it is necessarily true that merely by joining the faction most likely to win you will share in the spoils of victory. Leaders distribute rewards based on seniority more than support. In a close contest, you would likely be courted heavily by both sides, providing a temporary boost in status, but that would disappear once the conflict is over. You will have not earned the trust of the winner since your allegiance was in doubt. I don’t think there is much to gain by joining the larger side late; you’ll be on the bottom of society once the dust settles, trusted by neither the winners nor the losers.
In cases like this, I think the operative value evolution would select for is not political success but sexual success. Being one of many followers does nothing to advertise ourselves as desirable mates. On the other hand, bravely fighting a losing battle (as long as you don’t die in the process) signals both physical prowess (which you may not get in a lopsided victory) and other desirable traits, like courage. When the battle is over, one can assume that more money and women would be distributed to the new elite, but their children will be yours.
That should predict this bias to be stronger in men. After all, more partners, past a certain point, isn’t really helpful to women’s reproductive success, plus I’d be surprised if men sought courageous mates (if they go and get themselves killed before your baby is born...). So, is this bias stronger in men?
I don’t think it is necessarily true that merely by joining the faction most likely to win you will share in the spoils of victory. Leaders distribute rewards based on seniority more than support. In a close contest, you would likely be courted heavily by both sides, providing a temporary boost in status, but that would disappear once the conflict is over. You will have not earned the trust of the winner since your allegiance was in doubt. I don’t think there is much to gain by joining the larger side late; you’ll be on the bottom of society once the dust settles, trusted by neither the winners nor the losers.
In cases like this, I think the operative value evolution would select for is not political success but sexual success. Being one of many followers does nothing to advertise ourselves as desirable mates. On the other hand, bravely fighting a losing battle (as long as you don’t die in the process) signals both physical prowess (which you may not get in a lopsided victory) and other desirable traits, like courage. When the battle is over, one can assume that more money and women would be distributed to the new elite, but their children will be yours.
That should predict this bias to be stronger in men. After all, more partners, past a certain point, isn’t really helpful to women’s reproductive success, plus I’d be surprised if men sought courageous mates (if they go and get themselves killed before your baby is born...). So, is this bias stronger in men?