In order for a pause to work it has to happen everywhere. Nuclear power is widely deployed in e.g. France, so you need a stronger political force than the one causing nuclear power not to proliferate.
AI is also more like the “keys to the kingdom” here.
The benefit of nuclear power isn’t that huge, you still have fossil fuels which are cheap (even if they cause climate change in the long run).
The benefits of genetic editing/eugenics is also pretty nebulous and may take decades to realize.
On the other hand, one country having an aligned ASI offers an overwhelming advantage. World dominance goes from fiction to mundane reality. I think these sort of treaties also advertise this fact so I think it’s likely they won’t work. All governments are probably seriously considering what I mentioned above.
Why is the U.S. blocking Chinas access to GPUs? That seems like the most plausible explanation.
In order for a pause to work it has to happen everywhere. Nuclear power is widely deployed in e.g. France, so you need a stronger political force than the one causing nuclear power not to proliferate.
AI is also more like the “keys to the kingdom” here.
The benefit of nuclear power isn’t that huge, you still have fossil fuels which are cheap (even if they cause climate change in the long run).
The benefits of genetic editing/eugenics is also pretty nebulous and may take decades to realize.
On the other hand, one country having an aligned ASI offers an overwhelming advantage. World dominance goes from fiction to mundane reality. I think these sort of treaties also advertise this fact so I think it’s likely they won’t work. All governments are probably seriously considering what I mentioned above.
Why is the U.S. blocking Chinas access to GPUs? That seems like the most plausible explanation.
High levels GPUs are needed for basically anything mundane today. No need to bring in AGI worries to make it a strategic ressource.
I think the timing and perf focus of it all makes it clear it’s related to foundation models.