We can do that exactly in the window of “the last possible moment” of AGI.
Efforts between immortality and AGI are fungible and exclusive, or at least related in some way.
Ok, yeah—we have to succeed on BOTH alignment and immortality to keep any of us from dying.
3 and 4 are, I think, the point of the post. To the extent that work on immortality rather than alignment, we narrow the window of #2, and risk getting neither.
The statement seems like it’s assuming:
we know roughly how to build AGI
we decide when to do that
we use the time between now and then to increase chance of successful alignment
if we succeed in alignment early enough, you and your loved ones won’t die
I don’t think any of these are necessarily true, and I think the ways they are false is asymmetric in a manner that favors caution
It’s also assuming:
We know roughly how to achieve immortality
We can do that exactly in the window of “the last possible moment” of AGI.
Efforts between immortality and AGI are fungible and exclusive, or at least related in some way.
Ok, yeah—we have to succeed on BOTH alignment and immortality to keep any of us from dying.
3 and 4 are, I think, the point of the post. To the extent that work on immortality rather than alignment, we narrow the window of #2, and risk getting neither.
Isn’t the assumption that once we successfully align AGI, it can do the work on immortality? So “we” don’t need to know how beyond that.