I personally agree that cooperating in the Twin PD is clearly the correct choice, but I don’t think it is meaningful to argue for this on the grounds of decision-theoretic performance (as you seem to do). From The lack of performance metrics for CDT versus EDT, etc.by Caspar Oesterheld:
I disagree. There’s a clear measure of performance given in the Twin PD: the utilities.
I disagree with Oesterheld’s point about CDT vs EDT and metrics; I think we know enough math to say EDT is simply a wrong decision theory. We could, in principle, even demonstrate this in real life, by having e.g. 1000 people play a version of XOR Blackmail (500 people with and 500 people without a “termite infestation”) and see which theory performs best. It’ll be trivial to see EDT makes the wrong decision.
Thanks for responding!
I disagree. There’s a clear measure of performance given in the Twin PD: the utilities.
I disagree with Oesterheld’s point about CDT vs EDT and metrics; I think we know enough math to say EDT is simply a wrong decision theory. We could, in principle, even demonstrate this in real life, by having e.g. 1000 people play a version of XOR Blackmail (500 people with and 500 people without a “termite infestation”) and see which theory performs best. It’ll be trivial to see EDT makes the wrong decision.