Every discussion of decision theories that is not just “agents with max EV win”, where EV is calculated as a sum of “probability of the outcome times the value of the outcome” ends up fighting the hypothetical, usually by yelling that in zero-probability worlds someone’s pet DT does better than the competition. A trivial calculation shows that winning agents do not succumb to blackmail, stay silent in twin PD, one-box in all Newcomb’s variants and procreate in the miserable existence case. I don’t know if that’s what FDT does, but hopefully what a naive max EV calculation suggests.
Every discussion of decision theories that is not just “agents with max EV win”, where EV is calculated as a sum of “probability of the outcome times the value of the outcome” ends up fighting the hypothetical, usually by yelling that in zero-probability worlds someone’s pet DT does better than the competition. A trivial calculation shows that winning agents do not succumb to blackmail, stay silent in twin PD, one-box in all Newcomb’s variants and procreate in the miserable existence case. I don’t know if that’s what FDT does, but hopefully what a naive max EV calculation suggests.