Cleo Nardo comments on The 0.2 OOMs/year target

Cleo Nardo 31 Mar 2023 16:45 UTC
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I’ve added a section on hardware:
- Comparing 0.2 OOMs/year target to hardware growth-rates:
  Moore’s Law states that transitiors per integrated circuit doubles roughly every 2 years.
  Koomey’s Law states that the FLOPs-per-Joule doubled roughly every 1.57 years until 2000, whereupon it began doubling roughly every 2.6 years.
  Huang’s Law states that the growth-rate of GPU performance exceeds that of CPU performance. This is a somewhat dubious claim, but nonetheless I think the doubling time of GPUs is longer than 18 months.
  In general, the 0.2 OOMs/year target is faster than the current hardware growth-rate.