Since almost all of these costs are from Long COVID, I think these are actually more like a constant 1/100th of remaining life than 1/100th chance of immediate death. However, since 5% of the cost is from death and another decent chunk is from possibility of CFS, I would understand if you made a small adjustment here. Personally, I don’t think I’m going to increase the estimate of my own risk, though part of that is because I think I was conservative enough that I’d be skewing things if I made even more implicit adjustments toward higher risk.
Yeah, sorry about the confusion about community policy vs individual. I originally tried to give community advice but it got too complicated too quickly, so I just shipped with the individual policy estimate. My ideal way for people to interpret this is something like the precursors for a dividing line between the attractor states of “just act like normal and stay away from your cautious friends” and “just keep being cautious and stay away from all the risky people”. E.g. I think there should be bubbles of people who try not to get COVID and collectively take on less risk than individually optimal, but other people like myself should just take individually-relevant levels of risk and live the next few months in contact with others like ourselves. Ideally I will have a less-simplified version of this written up soon, but that’s definitely questionable.
Since almost all of these costs are from Long COVID, I think these are actually more like a constant 1/100th of remaining life than 1/100th chance of immediate death. However, since 5% of the cost is from death and another decent chunk is from possibility of CFS, I would understand if you made a small adjustment here. Personally, I don’t think I’m going to increase the estimate of my own risk, though part of that is because I think I was conservative enough that I’d be skewing things if I made even more implicit adjustments toward higher risk.
Yeah, sorry about the confusion about community policy vs individual. I originally tried to give community advice but it got too complicated too quickly, so I just shipped with the individual policy estimate. My ideal way for people to interpret this is something like the precursors for a dividing line between the attractor states of “just act like normal and stay away from your cautious friends” and “just keep being cautious and stay away from all the risky people”. E.g. I think there should be bubbles of people who try not to get COVID and collectively take on less risk than individually optimal, but other people like myself should just take individually-relevant levels of risk and live the next few months in contact with others like ourselves. Ideally I will have a less-simplified version of this written up soon, but that’s definitely questionable.