I should probably argue with Matt directly, but my brief take is that this is just entirely incompatible with what we see on the ground. The friends of mine who got COVID aren’t reporting 45% chance of their life being 20% worse. That’s… an incredibly massive effect that we would definitely see. Would anyone realistically bet on that?
I should probably argue with Matt directly, but my brief take is that this is just entirely incompatible with what we see on the ground. The friends of mine who got COVID aren’t reporting 45% chance of their life being 20% worse. That’s… an incredibly massive effect that we would definitely see. Would anyone realistically bet on that?