I think that would be a more on-point objection to make on a single-author post, but this is a chat log between two people, optimized to communicate to each other, and as such generally comes with fewer caveats and taking a bunch of implicit things for granted (this makes it well-suited for some kind of communication, and not others). I like it in that it helps me get a much better sense of a bunch of underlying intuitions and hunches that are often hard to formalize and so rarely make it into posts, but I also think it is sometimes frustrating because it’s not optimized to be responded to.
I would take bets that Ronny’s position was always something closer to “I had this robust-seeming inside-view argument that claimed the probability was extremely low, though of course my outside view and different levels of uncertainty caused my betting odds to be quite different”.
I think that would be a more on-point objection to make on a single-author post, but this is a chat log between two people, optimized to communicate to each other, and as such generally comes with fewer caveats and taking a bunch of implicit things for granted (this makes it well-suited for some kind of communication, and not others). I like it in that it helps me get a much better sense of a bunch of underlying intuitions and hunches that are often hard to formalize and so rarely make it into posts, but I also think it is sometimes frustrating because it’s not optimized to be responded to.
I would take bets that Ronny’s position was always something closer to “I had this robust-seeming inside-view argument that claimed the probability was extremely low, though of course my outside view and different levels of uncertainty caused my betting odds to be quite different”.