I don’t see why it should rule out high probability of doom for some folks who present themselves as having good epistemics to actually be quite bad at picking up new models and stuck in an old, limiting paradigm, refusing to investigate new things properly because of believing themselves to already know. It certainly does weaken appeals to their authority, but the reasoning stands on its own, to the degree it’s actually specified using valid and relevant formal claims.
I don’t see why it should rule out high probability of doom for some folks who present themselves as having good epistemics to actually be quite bad at picking up new models and stuck in an old, limiting paradigm, refusing to investigate new things properly because of believing themselves to already know. It certainly does weaken appeals to their authority, but the reasoning stands on its own, to the degree it’s actually specified using valid and relevant formal claims.