I don’t know they will—see my above comment suggesting the SIAI actually measure donations from program participants. It does seem more likely now, however, that the program will at least break even on reducing existential risk, hence my increased comfort with the idea.
Possibly, although I didn’t think of that analogy until your comment. It seems more likely that the program will break even when I consider the potential for increased donation compared to my previous estimate, which was based only on AnnaSalamon’s described expected outcomes for the program (“more rational, effective people”). I’m not sure that the program actually will break even in terms of existential risk reduction, which is why I’m very interested in seeing SIAI measure any increase in donations.
I don’t know they will—see my above comment suggesting the SIAI actually measure donations from program participants. It does seem more likely now, however, that the program will at least break even on reducing existential risk, hence my increased comfort with the idea.
Does it seem that the program will break even because you’ve anchored yourself to 9x ROI?
Possibly, although I didn’t think of that analogy until your comment. It seems more likely that the program will break even when I consider the potential for increased donation compared to my previous estimate, which was based only on AnnaSalamon’s described expected outcomes for the program (“more rational, effective people”). I’m not sure that the program actually will break even in terms of existential risk reduction, which is why I’m very interested in seeing SIAI measure any increase in donations.
Ah, I see. That makes sense.