If a Victorian thinker had challenged the appropriateness of medical advances like open heart surgery on the grounds that the Earth was dangerously close to carrying capacity, would you be persuaded that medical researchers were selfish or misguided.
Putting it slightly differently, there’s not yet a compelling case that the current average human lifespan or carrying capacity of the planet are set in stone by physical laws. Human science has increased both those numbers many times throughout history.
If you want to make the argument that a counter-factual world with 3 billion humans, all living the American standard of living would be more moral than the current setup, that’s a respectable position. But there’s substantial difficulty getting from here to there. If we’re both wishing for pie-in-the-sky, doesn’t it seem more pleasant to wish for the world of 6 billion sustainably American standard of living, and trying to think of how to get to that outcome?
No because life saving procedures are a different matter to procedures that ensure immortality which would effectively cut the death rate in a hypothetical situation where everyone in the world had access to them. My point is I don’t think this would be sustainable/ it would lead to dire consequences for the human race. As I mentioned to Mitchell Porter I didn’t say that experimentation in this area should be prevented I just think that it is not a desirable road for humanity in the event of success.
1) I’m doubtful that the distinction between lifesaving procedures and immortality will end up being a clear distinction. I’m optimistic that humanity will eventually have the capability to do things like replace lost limbs with new limbs. Once we have that level of capacity, most of the modern causes of death go away—if you survive to reach the hospital, you’re likely to be able to leave basically good as new.
2) Given our current levels of technology, Western-level standards of living for everyone are not sustainable. Nor do there appear to be imminent technological advances that would make that sustainable. But radical life-extension technology (of whatever form) is also nowhere near imminent. Why do you think that the kind of technology advances you dislike are closer to achievement than carrying-capacity advances?
Some of your comments suggest that you would oppose carrying capacity increases (like colonizing other planets) even if they were within humanities capacity because these technological capacities would be bad for humanity. Assuming you are correct that these technological revolutions would fundamentally change human society, why are these hypothetical changes worse than the changes caused by developments like selective breeding of livestock, practical steam engines, cell phones, the Internet, or agriculture itself?
Wait I don’t think I said I “dislike” any technological advances. I’m not opposing the investigation into life preserving technology and I would be greatly impressed if a “cure for death” was discovered I just think that the effect on human life would ultimately be negative. I said the idea of colonising space would be depressing to me. By colonising space I don’t mean living on other planets as right now that is an impossibility, I mean living in space ships. This would in no way be comparable to living on planet earth and the psychological implications of remaining in an enclosed space for such a long period of time would be great. Even if these and other practical limitations could be overcome, I find this idea disagreeable on an emotional/ aesthetic level. I find the idea of leaving the beauty of the natural world in favour of a simulated reality within a spacecraft deeply sad. Particularly if this was a result of the irreparable destruction of planet earth rendering it uninhabitable for humans.
Regarding the question of technological revolutions you mention there have been many that have had an extremely negative impact on human society and the world itself, the most obvious being the utilisation of fossil fuels for energy sources. The examples you mention are pretty benign but in the case of agriculture: http://www.guardian.co.uk/global-development/2012/aug/26/food-shortages-world-vegetarianism?INTCMP=SRCH
Also : “Meat production accounts for about 5% of global CO2 emissions, 40% of methane emissions and 40% of various nitrogen oxides. If meat production doubles, by the late 2040s cows, pigs, sheep and chickens will be responsible for about half as much climate change impact as all the world’s cars, trucks and aircraft.”(Guardian) Human beings have engineered many impressive innovations in technology and science, unfortunately these have also had some terrible side effects that we need to overcome as soon as possible.
I find this idea disagreeable on an emotional/ aesthetic level.
Sure—but this sort of reaction is historically contingent—our culture could have developed such that you would feel differently. These sorts of judgments are very fluid over time—what the Victorians found aesthetic was different that what the Romans found aesthetic is different from us. This fluidity makes it very hard to tell when the judgments should be taken seriously. Whereas we know that almost all technological advances reduced poverty.
Even as a believer in AGW, I’m pretty confident that the Industrial Revolution (which started with coal and moved to oil) was a net benefit to human happiness. Separately, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if the were a near term rise in the incidence of vegetarianism in the West for food shortage reasons. (Food is a zero-sum game: There’s a finite amount of energy per time that Earth receives from the Sun. Every calorie spent digesting grass to build cow bone is a calorie that can’t sustain a human).
To ask the natural followup question:
If a Victorian thinker had challenged the appropriateness of medical advances like open heart surgery on the grounds that the Earth was dangerously close to carrying capacity, would you be persuaded that medical researchers were selfish or misguided.
Putting it slightly differently, there’s not yet a compelling case that the current average human lifespan or carrying capacity of the planet are set in stone by physical laws. Human science has increased both those numbers many times throughout history.
If you want to make the argument that a counter-factual world with 3 billion humans, all living the American standard of living would be more moral than the current setup, that’s a respectable position. But there’s substantial difficulty getting from here to there. If we’re both wishing for pie-in-the-sky, doesn’t it seem more pleasant to wish for the world of 6 billion sustainably American standard of living, and trying to think of how to get to that outcome?
No because life saving procedures are a different matter to procedures that ensure immortality which would effectively cut the death rate in a hypothetical situation where everyone in the world had access to them. My point is I don’t think this would be sustainable/ it would lead to dire consequences for the human race. As I mentioned to Mitchell Porter I didn’t say that experimentation in this area should be prevented I just think that it is not a desirable road for humanity in the event of success.
Two points:
1) I’m doubtful that the distinction between lifesaving procedures and immortality will end up being a clear distinction. I’m optimistic that humanity will eventually have the capability to do things like replace lost limbs with new limbs. Once we have that level of capacity, most of the modern causes of death go away—if you survive to reach the hospital, you’re likely to be able to leave basically good as new.
2) Given our current levels of technology, Western-level standards of living for everyone are not sustainable. Nor do there appear to be imminent technological advances that would make that sustainable. But radical life-extension technology (of whatever form) is also nowhere near imminent. Why do you think that the kind of technology advances you dislike are closer to achievement than carrying-capacity advances?
Some of your comments suggest that you would oppose carrying capacity increases (like colonizing other planets) even if they were within humanities capacity because these technological capacities would be bad for humanity. Assuming you are correct that these technological revolutions would fundamentally change human society, why are these hypothetical changes worse than the changes caused by developments like selective breeding of livestock, practical steam engines, cell phones, the Internet, or agriculture itself?
I’m not sure that regrowing limbs is much like rejuvenation. Most people die of aging, not accidents.
Wait I don’t think I said I “dislike” any technological advances. I’m not opposing the investigation into life preserving technology and I would be greatly impressed if a “cure for death” was discovered I just think that the effect on human life would ultimately be negative. I said the idea of colonising space would be depressing to me. By colonising space I don’t mean living on other planets as right now that is an impossibility, I mean living in space ships. This would in no way be comparable to living on planet earth and the psychological implications of remaining in an enclosed space for such a long period of time would be great. Even if these and other practical limitations could be overcome, I find this idea disagreeable on an emotional/ aesthetic level. I find the idea of leaving the beauty of the natural world in favour of a simulated reality within a spacecraft deeply sad. Particularly if this was a result of the irreparable destruction of planet earth rendering it uninhabitable for humans. Regarding the question of technological revolutions you mention there have been many that have had an extremely negative impact on human society and the world itself, the most obvious being the utilisation of fossil fuels for energy sources. The examples you mention are pretty benign but in the case of agriculture: http://www.guardian.co.uk/global-development/2012/aug/26/food-shortages-world-vegetarianism?INTCMP=SRCH Also : “Meat production accounts for about 5% of global CO2 emissions, 40% of methane emissions and 40% of various nitrogen oxides. If meat production doubles, by the late 2040s cows, pigs, sheep and chickens will be responsible for about half as much climate change impact as all the world’s cars, trucks and aircraft.”(Guardian)
Human beings have engineered many impressive innovations in technology and science, unfortunately these have also had some terrible side effects that we need to overcome as soon as possible.
Sure—but this sort of reaction is historically contingent—our culture could have developed such that you would feel differently. These sorts of judgments are very fluid over time—what the Victorians found aesthetic was different that what the Romans found aesthetic is different from us. This fluidity makes it very hard to tell when the judgments should be taken seriously. Whereas we know that almost all technological advances reduced poverty.
Even as a believer in AGW, I’m pretty confident that the Industrial Revolution (which started with coal and moved to oil) was a net benefit to human happiness. Separately, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if the were a near term rise in the incidence of vegetarianism in the West for food shortage reasons. (Food is a zero-sum game: There’s a finite amount of energy per time that Earth receives from the Sun. Every calorie spent digesting grass to build cow bone is a calorie that can’t sustain a human).