That paper (which I notice you’re first author on) is pretty good and you might want to post it as a top-level post. Note that you estimate handwashing optimistically reduces transmission by 50%. This paper estimated an R0 in Wuhan of 3.86 prior to social distancing measures, so if the situation in other cities is similar, then high compliance with hand-washing would only cover about half of the required reduction, with the rest left to other measures such as reduction in gatherings and travel.
I posted in to the EA forum, and have now crossposted that to Lesswrong. (I clearly overestimated the proportion of people who read both.)
Regarding transmission reduction from handwashing, two points. First, reducing R0 flattens the curve in ways that make the epidemic far more manageable for emergency services, saving lives. Second, prior to any social distancing, the R_0 was far higher than it is when we have the growing norms around reduced hand-contact, etc., which could very plausibly combine to push R0 far closer to 1.
That paper (which I notice you’re first author on) is pretty good and you might want to post it as a top-level post. Note that you estimate handwashing optimistically reduces transmission by 50%. This paper estimated an R0 in Wuhan of 3.86 prior to social distancing measures, so if the situation in other cities is similar, then high compliance with hand-washing would only cover about half of the required reduction, with the rest left to other measures such as reduction in gatherings and travel.
I posted in to the EA forum, and have now crossposted that to Lesswrong. (I clearly overestimated the proportion of people who read both.)
Regarding transmission reduction from handwashing, two points. First, reducing R0 flattens the curve in ways that make the epidemic far more manageable for emergency services, saving lives. Second, prior to any social distancing, the R_0 was far higher than it is when we have the growing norms around reduced hand-contact, etc., which could very plausibly combine to push R0 far closer to 1.