The cost to build a tokamak that is projected to reach Q~10 has fallen by more than a factor of 10 in the last 6 years. CFS is building for $2B what ITER is building for maybe $22B, maybe $65B (cost estimates vary).
It’s really not clear what the cost of fusion will end up being once it becomes mass produced.
1.8 trillion is currently spent globally to generate electric power.
96.5 trillion is current world GDP.
If AI automation can reduce the cost of 50% of jobs by 50%, then it’s value per year is 24 trillion. (much more because AI will enable to the economy to grow)
Obviously if fusion makes electricity cost $0, free, it’s value created per year is 1.8 trillion. More realistically, competitive fusion will probably not reduce costs at all—it will simply reduce carbon emissions, which is a cost not priced into that “1.8T” figure. If we say the cost of the carbon emissions are $75 a ton, and 36.8 gigatons are global carbon emissions for electric power generation, then $2.76 trillion is the “externalities” from generating electricity.
So if fusion costs the same as current equipment at scale, then the benefit from fusion is $2.76 trillion.
Also, electric power is usually not the bottleneck resource for economic growth. It’s a necessary condition but human labor, IP, economic systems that don’t allow mass amounts of theft and inefficiencies—these I think contribute much more.
The cost to build a tokamak that is projected to reach Q~10 has fallen by more than a factor of 10 in the last 6 years. CFS is building for $2B what ITER is building for maybe $22B, maybe $65B (cost estimates vary).
It’s really not clear what the cost of fusion will end up being once it becomes mass produced.
Ok, I think I may have missed a key piece above.
1.8 trillion is currently spent globally to generate electric power.
96.5 trillion is current world GDP.
If AI automation can reduce the cost of 50% of jobs by 50%, then it’s value per year is 24 trillion. (much more because AI will enable to the economy to grow)
Obviously if fusion makes electricity cost $0, free, it’s value created per year is 1.8 trillion. More realistically, competitive fusion will probably not reduce costs at all—it will simply reduce carbon emissions, which is a cost not priced into that “1.8T” figure. If we say the cost of the carbon emissions are $75 a ton, and 36.8 gigatons are global carbon emissions for electric power generation, then $2.76 trillion is the “externalities” from generating electricity.
So if fusion costs the same as current equipment at scale, then the benefit from fusion is $2.76 trillion.
Also, electric power is usually not the bottleneck resource for economic growth. It’s a necessary condition but human labor, IP, economic systems that don’t allow mass amounts of theft and inefficiencies—these I think contribute much more.