•As I said, I cut my planned sequence of postings on SIAI short. There’s more that I would have liked to say and more that I hope to say in the future. For now I’m focusing on finishing my thesis.
•An important point that did not come across in my postings is that I’m skeptical of philanthropic projects having a positive impact on what they’re trying to do in general (independently of relation to existential risk). One major influence here has been my personal experience with public institutions. Another major influence has been reading the GiveWell blog. See for example GiveWell’s page on Social Programs That Just Don’t Work. At present I think that it’s a highly nonobvious but important fact that those projects which superficially look to be promising and which are not well-grounded by constant feedback from outsiders almost always fail to have any nontrivial impact on the relevant cause.
•On the subject of a proposed project inadvertently doing more harm than good, see the last few paragraphs of the GiveWell post titled Against Promise Neighborhoods. Consideration of counterfactuals is very tricky and very smart people often get it wrong.
•Quite possibly SIAI is having a positive holistic impact - I don’t have confidence that this is so, the situation is just that I don’t have enough information to judge from the outside.
•Regarding the time line for AGI and the feasibility of FAI research, see my back and forth with Tim Tyler here.
•My thinking as to what the most important causes to focus at present are is very much in flux. I welcome any information that you or others can point me to.
•My reasons for supporting developing world aid in particular at present are various and nuanced and I haven’t yet had the time to write out a detailed explanation that’s ready for public consumption. Feel free to PM me with your email address if you’d like to correspond.
An important point that did not come across in my postings is that I’m skeptical of philanthropic projects having a positive impact on what they’re trying to do in general (independently of relation to existential risk). One major influence here has been my personal experience with public institutions. Another major influence has been reading the GiveWell blog. See for example GiveWell’s page on Social Programs That Just Don’t Work. At present I think that it’s a highly nonobvious but important fact that those projects which superficially look to be promising and which are not well-grounded by constant feedback from outsiders almost always fail to have any nontrivial impact on the relevant cause.
If you had a post on this specifically planned then I would be interested in reading it!
Reasonable response, upvoted :-).
•As I said, I cut my planned sequence of postings on SIAI short. There’s more that I would have liked to say and more that I hope to say in the future. For now I’m focusing on finishing my thesis.
•An important point that did not come across in my postings is that I’m skeptical of philanthropic projects having a positive impact on what they’re trying to do in general (independently of relation to existential risk). One major influence here has been my personal experience with public institutions. Another major influence has been reading the GiveWell blog. See for example GiveWell’s page on Social Programs That Just Don’t Work. At present I think that it’s a highly nonobvious but important fact that those projects which superficially look to be promising and which are not well-grounded by constant feedback from outsiders almost always fail to have any nontrivial impact on the relevant cause.
See the comment here by prase which I agree with.
•On the subject of a proposed project inadvertently doing more harm than good, see the last few paragraphs of the GiveWell post titled Against Promise Neighborhoods. Consideration of counterfactuals is very tricky and very smart people often get it wrong.
•Quite possibly SIAI is having a positive holistic impact - I don’t have confidence that this is so, the situation is just that I don’t have enough information to judge from the outside.
•Regarding the time line for AGI and the feasibility of FAI research, see my back and forth with Tim Tyler here.
•My thinking as to what the most important causes to focus at present are is very much in flux. I welcome any information that you or others can point me to.
•My reasons for supporting developing world aid in particular at present are various and nuanced and I haven’t yet had the time to write out a detailed explanation that’s ready for public consumption. Feel free to PM me with your email address if you’d like to correspond.
Thanks again for your thoughtful response.
If you had a post on this specifically planned then I would be interested in reading it!