I think if you account for undertesting, then I’d guess 30% or more of the UK was infected during the previous peak, which should reduce R by more than 30% (the people most likely to be infected are also most likely to spread further), and that is already enough to explain the drop.
I think if you account for undertesting, then I’d guess 30% or more of the UK was infected during the previous peak, which should reduce R by more than 30% (the people most likely to be infected are also most likely to spread further), and that is already enough to explain the drop.
This is a very good point, and in my eyes explains the observations pretty much completely. Thanks!