‘how much longer does stuff take in reality than it feels like it should take?’
This is the best argument against a lot of the fast takeoff stories that I’ve seen, and it’s probably one of the big failure modes of intellectuals to underestimate how much time things take in reality as opposed to their heads.
Note that there are several phases of takeoff. We have the current ramp of human efforts into AI which is accelerating results. We have AI potentially self improving, which is already in use in gpt-4. (See the rrbm rubrics where the model grades itself and this is used for RL learning)
And then we have a “pause” where the models have self improved to the limits of either data, compute, or robotics capacity. I expect this to happen before 2030.
But the pause is misleading. If every year the existing robotics fleet is used to add just 10 percent more to itself, or add just 10 percent more high quality scientific data or human interaction data to the existing corpus, or build 10 percent more compute, this is a hard exponential process.
It will not slow down until the solar system is consumed. (The slow down from there being obviously the speed of light)
This is the best argument against a lot of the fast takeoff stories that I’ve seen, and it’s probably one of the big failure modes of intellectuals to underestimate how much time things take in reality as opposed to their heads.
Note that there are several phases of takeoff. We have the current ramp of human efforts into AI which is accelerating results. We have AI potentially self improving, which is already in use in gpt-4. (See the rrbm rubrics where the model grades itself and this is used for RL learning)
And then we have a “pause” where the models have self improved to the limits of either data, compute, or robotics capacity. I expect this to happen before 2030.
But the pause is misleading. If every year the existing robotics fleet is used to add just 10 percent more to itself, or add just 10 percent more high quality scientific data or human interaction data to the existing corpus, or build 10 percent more compute, this is a hard exponential process.
It will not slow down until the solar system is consumed. (The slow down from there being obviously the speed of light)