In 2018 analysts put the market value of Waymo LLC, then a subsidiary of Alphabet Inc., at $175 billion. Its most recent funding round gave the company an estimated valuation of $30 billion, roughly the same as Cruise. Aurora Innovation Inc., a startup co-founded by Chris Urmson, Google’s former autonomous-vehicle chief, has lost more than 85% since last year [i.e. 2021] and is now worth less than $3 billion. This September a leaked memo from Urmson summed up Aurora’s cash-flow struggles and suggested it might have to sell out to a larger company. Many of the industry’s most promising efforts have met the same fate in recent years, including Drive.ai, Voyage, Zoox, and Uber’s self-driving division. “Long term, I think we will have autonomous vehicles that you and I can buy,” says Mike Ramsey, an analyst at market researcher Gartner Inc. “But we’re going to be old.”
It certainly sounds like there was an update by the industry towards longer AI timelines!
Also, I bought a new car in 2018, and I worried at the time about the resale value (because it seemed likely self-driving cars would be on the market in 3-5 years, when I was likely to sell). That was a common worry, I’m not weird, I feel like I was even on the skeptical side if anything.
Someone on either LessWrong or SSC offered to bet me that self-driving cars would be on the market by 2018 (I don’t remember what the year was at the time -- 2014?)
Every year since 2014, Elon Musk promised self-driving cars within a year or two. (Example source: https://futurism.com/video-elon-musk-promising-self-driving-cars) Elon Musk is a bit of a joke now, but 5 years ago he was highly respected in many circles, including here on LessWrong.
That definitely sounds like a contrarian viewpoint in 2012, but surely not by 2016-2018.
Look at this from Nostalgebraist:
https://nostalgebraist.tumblr.com/post/710106298866368512/oakfern-replied-to-your-post-its-going-to-be
which includes the following quote:
It certainly sounds like there was an update by the industry towards longer AI timelines!
Also, I bought a new car in 2018, and I worried at the time about the resale value (because it seemed likely self-driving cars would be on the market in 3-5 years, when I was likely to sell). That was a common worry, I’m not weird, I feel like I was even on the skeptical side if anything.
Someone on either LessWrong or SSC offered to bet me that self-driving cars would be on the market by 2018 (I don’t remember what the year was at the time -- 2014?)
Every year since 2014, Elon Musk promised self-driving cars within a year or two. (Example source: https://futurism.com/video-elon-musk-promising-self-driving-cars) Elon Musk is a bit of a joke now, but 5 years ago he was highly respected in many circles, including here on LessWrong.