I get the impression that the US response is best modelled on how much action individuals choose to take based on how scared they feel / how fed up they are with COVID restrictions.
In the UK I think people’s response is generally more directly linked to the government’s rules and guidance (with a fair bit of going slightly beyond the rules and a little bit of completely ignoring them).
In the latter case things can be put in place before the 60 day delay (for instance Scotland didn’t have many cases of the new strain but took drastic action despite that because they knew it would grow quickly). In the former case I think your description here is a good model of the response—we could slow it down by reacting early but we probably won’t.
Yes, that was my conclusion too.
I get the impression that the US response is best modelled on how much action individuals choose to take based on how scared they feel / how fed up they are with COVID restrictions.
In the UK I think people’s response is generally more directly linked to the government’s rules and guidance (with a fair bit of going slightly beyond the rules and a little bit of completely ignoring them).
In the latter case things can be put in place before the 60 day delay (for instance Scotland didn’t have many cases of the new strain but took drastic action despite that because they knew it would grow quickly). In the former case I think your description here is a good model of the response—we could slow it down by reacting early but we probably won’t.